[ABC]: South Australia and Tasmania Votes 2014
Commonwealth of Australia
- Jul 2, 2018
"Good Evening I'm Leigh Sales from the ABC's Adelaide Studios,
The polls are seconds away from closing in Tasmania. Here in South Australia, the polls will close in half an hours time. Joining me in the studio tonight is none other then the ABC's election analyst Antony Green. We are joined by two panels this evening, one in the Adelaide Studios and one in the Hobart Studios in Tasmania. In the Adelaide Studios we have Deputy Leader of the South Australian Liberal Party and hopeful Deputy Premier, Vickie Chapman, also joining her is Peter Malinauskas, the Labor Member for Croydon. We are also joined on the panel by Rob Lucas, the Shadow Treasurer and Tom Koutsantonis, the current Treasurer to go through and help us collect results from all the booths.
Well these campaigns have geared up to be interesting ones indeed, the Labor Party in South Australia has been in power for 12 years now since 2002 and the Liberals are hopeful of being able to persuade the election that change is needed. The Labor Party in Tasmania has been in power for 8 years now and following the resignation of former Premier Lara Giddings, they have a new Premier in Rebecca White. The Labor Party all but wiped out the Liberal Party in Tasmania at the 2013 Federal Election but will this translate into state politics? In South Australia, Labor goes into the race behind in the two-party preferred but due to an uneven distribution of seats, they still command a majority in the South Australian House of Assembly. For the run down of key seats I'm joined by Antony Green."
"Well we will start with Tasmania, the polls have been showing that the Liberal Party could be slightly up at this election and there could be a significant swing towards the Greens. Does this mean the Liberal Party has secured enough to form Government in Tasmania? Who knows. The Labor Party and the Greens are currently in a coalition to command a majority in the Tasmanian House of Assembly and in the likelihood of a hung parliament, that will probably remain. The Liberals are hopeful of picking up seats in Bass and Braddon, the seats to the North-West and North-East of Tasmania including both Flinders and King Islands but this would be against the Greens to which the polls are showing quite a strong result for them. Maybe one in Franklin against Labor. If they can get one seat in Braddon, Bass and Franklin each that would be enough for a majority. Currently, the Liberals have two in every seat, Labor have two in every seat and the Greens have one in every seat, so it is evenly split across the board. Can Labor pick up enough seats to govern in its own right? I highly doubt that. That would require them to pick up 3 seats to reach the magic number of 13. They could do it in Braddon against the Greens and they could do it in Lyons also against the Greens. The last third seat they could pick up against all odds is one in Denison, but that would require the Green vote to plummet there and we're talking the west side of Hobart here and the Hobart City Centre so I highly doubt that. I don't think Labor can govern in their own right tonight, I think the Liberals have a chance, but we will probably see a repeated result of a hung parliament with the Greens holding the balance of power again."
"Okay and in South Australia?"
"Well South Australia is a funny one, because Labor at the 2010 election were on about 48% to the Liberals 52% on two-party preferred. It's clear that South Australia is struggling in areas of gerrymandering but when the seats have 25,000 electors each it becomes difficult to maintain a perfect even system. ECSA, to the surprise of many have not done a redistribution yet and so Labor are going into this election with high chances. The problem for Labor is, all the Liberals seat margins are pretty high, they would need a 4.1% uniform swing just to gain a single seat. As for the Liberals, they would only need a 2.2% swing to unseat the Labor government and a further 3.6% swing to form government in their own right. The only seats in this whole election with a margin of less than 2% are Labor's Chloe Fox's seat of Bright and the Independent Mount Gambier, held by Don Pegler. He is up for a tough fight with the polls suggesting Troy Bell, the Liberal candidate in Mount Gambier doing quite well to take that seat from him. That will take the Liberals up to 19, but the magic number is 24. Labor have not launched huge campaigns into Liberal seats and this election has been battled out in Labor held seats of Bright, Mitchell, Florey, Newland, Hartley and Elder."
"Thank you Antony."
The panel would get to general chit chat about policy and the election and their hopeful results for tonight as the results begin coming in.