[MN] Winter is Coming

[Odinson]

This is an official MN Event response. Please note that European players who aren't directly mentioned are free to reply to this thread (and encouraged to do so).

Scientists around the world would now be certain that the Arctic oscillation has weakened and was retreating north. Luckily, this time around, light snow and more reasonable winds accompanied the front instead of the devastating weather that had previously crossed over Europe. Meteorologists and common people alike in Italy, Turkey, and Spain would note that temperatures were going up, and weather conditions were rapidly improving. At the rate at which temperatures were raising, it appeared that surface temperatures probably wouldn't be normal for another month. Scientists along the coast of Norway, the United Kingdom, and Sweden would note that ice was no longer expanding, but in some places was actually retreating. On average, temperatures around Europe went up anywhere from 0 to 15 degrees Celsius.


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OTTOMAN CALIPHATE AND SULTANATE
Temperatures remained much more chilly than normal in Turkey, but they were no longer going down. Luckily, it seemed that the oscillation had reached as far south as it was going to go, meaning that most of Turkey would only experience colder-than-normal temperatures. Citizens mostly followed and supported the rationing program, while efforts to prevent pipes from freezing were mostly successful. Although Turkey wouldn't be hit as hard as the rest of Europe, the efforts to protect national food stocks would prove to be a very important move, seeing as food prices around Europe and possibly the world would go up due to the shortened growing season.
@Retroliser


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KINGDOM OF IRELAND
The Irish government was able to keep the power grids up and running, and making repairs where needed. The food rationing program worked, though people didn't like it very much. Like the rest of Europe, temperatures slowly began rising in Ireland and, soon, they snow might even begin to melt.
@Dragon


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GERMAN REICH
In Germany, the news began to focus on the warming weather. While temperatures were not back to normal, they were at least ten degrees warmer than normal and continuing to go up.
@NagandEmerald


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KINGDOM OF ITALY
Along with the weather, the Italian press covered the heroic acts of the King and his sister. The sailors aboard the Etna were able to save the fishermen just before the storm struck them and their island. Some of the buildings in Venice were showing foundational issues, however no major failures had yet to happen. The Italian people, however, were perhaps more trusting in their government than ever, and mostly followed the direction of the government in evacuating the city. Logistically, the government needed somewhere to keep the thousands of displaced people, because the air was still freezing.
@Logan


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THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
The two women were successfully rescued from the sea, though the teenager was unconscious for quite some time. The ships crossing the Atlantic did indeed encounter very rough seas and unusually tall waves, but they were able to make it through to the English Channel.
@John


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THE UNITED KINGDOM
Power was restored in both the City of London and, after a long delay, Whitechapel. The RMS Queen Mary 2 was able to safely dock and disembark the rest of her passengers to shore, though it was still incredibly cold.
@Jamie


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KINGDOM OF SWEDEN
While it had not been hit as hard as Norway, Sweden was covered in a thick blanket of snow and temperatures were incredibly low - well below zero. Power was still on in most of Sweden, however there were some internal stresses on the power grid. Something of note was that the Baltic Sea, well-past Gotland, was currently frozen solid. Sailing a normal vessel through the ice would prove to be impossible for now, though it was thick enough to walk on. Local governments across Sweden called out for assistance from the greater government, requesting bottled water and food to distribute.
@Connor


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FRANCE
With France being such a large country, it was impossible for it to not be hit by the massive oscillation. Over two feet of snow covered the entire nation which had brought transportation to an absolute standstill. Water pipes across the country were frozen seeing as temperatures had fallen dramatically, well below zero, since the oscillation had blown through. Luckily, French scientists were certain that things would start warming up soon.
@Ellie

 

[Retroliser]

"Ladies and gentlemen! The weather front is receding, temperatures are beginning to return to normal, Turkey has survived unscathed!" The Grand Vizier announced on television and radio. "Strong government action, while heavy-handed and invasive, prepared us for the wind, snow and hail, with the view that Turkey itself would be frozen for a prolonged period of time. However, luck has been on our side, it would seem to be the case that the unusual weather pattern has run out of steam. As such, I am happy to announce that the measures the government has instituted will be rescinded sooner, rather than later. We shall be observing and watching the weather carefully for the next month or two, just to ensure that it doesn't suddenly get a second wind and catch us by surprise, if it is confirmed by the meteorological community that this is the end of this unnatural natural disaster... Then the measures will be rescinded, all of the services seized to coordinate a response to the oncoming storm will be returned to their original owners. Ladies and gentlemen, this is too soon to celebrate the end of the trouble, but it is definitely cause for relief!

However, we must spare a thought for those further north. Europe proper has found itself frozen into ice, buried under drifts of snow, and its people cut off from essential supplies. Turkey, as a nation who survived the catastrophe with barely a scratch, should embrace its position of good fortune, and lend a helping hand to those who were less fortunate. If there is any food you have spare that you can survive without, hand it over to your local Turkish Red Crescent. It is beyond a doubt that they will ensure your donations of food and clothing will be used to help Europeans struck down by cold and hunger. Bless you all, and stay safe!"

 

[Dragon]

With the rise of temperatures in Èire, there is a renewed sense of hope among the general public who have had to endure the very worst nature had to offer. however, that is not to say that some among the public don't still remain extremely embittered by the governments handling of the recent events. a group of citizens, has taken note of the events surrounding government actions in a collection of journals which have been sent to the free territory for publication.

Farmers and Fishermen have since joined forces to form an Agrarian Party to advocate for subsidies and protectionist measures that would place limitations on imported produce and catches.

The current administrations approval rating now sits at a nerve wracking 38%

 

[NagandEmerald]

With temperatures returning to slightly more bearable conditions, German citizens would finally begin to return their lives to normal. As roads and train tracks were cleared, so too were schools and businesses reopened and efforts to repair the damages begun. However, the effect on the German economy and society was horrendous. Upon the massive withdraws of the Bundesbank, the country was already skyrocketing into debt. At over $3 billion US, the Chancellery called to order a meeting on the matter, and alerted the Kaiser, Reichstag, and Volksrat — who were currently in asylum in Turkey — on the matter regarding the economy.

Protests against the Federal Government began to rise in number, particularly in northern German states, where citizens called for further referendums on certain local policies to be managed solely by the Federal Länder themselves, instead of with limited government interference or authority. Riots in Berlin and in Munich had to be pacified by police as the Federal Government prepared a statement to address the situation.

 

[Logan]

The Government would spend $50,000,000 to rent hotel rooms in Padua until the crisis has abated, to which the government could evacuate those people forced to flee Venice. Meanwhile, the King and Princess would rotate with the troops in the capital, spending their time off in the same barracks as the men they were working with, and waking up with their rotation to continue the hard work of getting the capital back up and running. Cavour and Etna would make port and set themselves up on the mooring, awaiting any more search and rescue requests. Power Company teams and engineers would still be hard at work at restoring power to any areas where the power grid was compromised, while local police would team up with local fire EMS in cities to keep essential services running smoothly where needed.

 

[Odinson]

This is an official MN Event response. Please note that European players who aren't directly mentioned are free to reply to this thread (and encouraged to do so).

The ice was now melting and receding from nearly all points of contact with Europe. Glaciologists in Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom determined that while amount of ice in the Arctic would probably remain higher than average for the rest of the year, it would be roughly close to normal within a month, probably by the beginning of June (February 3, 2019). Icebergs would also be a problem that is two or three times worse than what they normally are. Europe was also slowly, but steadily, warming. By the beginning of June, air temperatures would also be relatively normal again, however it they would probably remain slightly cooler than average for the rest of the year.

From what scientists could determine, the part of the global thermohaline system that was disrupted has now become active again. However, because most countries failed to deploy scientists or monitoring equipment to the Arctic, no one will know exactly what caused the disruption, and if it was a warning for something worse to come. Some of the most educated and intelligent climatologists, oceanographers, and glaciologists in the world would probably come to the conclusion that it was ironically a symptom of global climate change.

For a more detailed account on why this happened, countries would need to investigate further to come to any more clear conclusions. The longer countries wait to do this, the more vague the information will be.

 

[Connor]

With thick fresh snow covering the majority of Sweden and temperatures dropping well below normal cities, villages and towns alike would begin to feel the strain. Local governments would begin pumping ploughs, grit spreaders and emergency recovery vehicles into the country, trying their hardest to clear arterial roadways and public transport routes in order to keep the economy throbbing. A clear outcry from those in the northern-most points of the country would echo through local communities with no clear response from central government. Power throughout smaller villages and towns would flicker with power and energy organisations sending reminders nationally in order to reduce non-essential power usage.

With note to deteriorating sea conditions, the forecast would be spread nationally to avoid waterways unless absolutely essential, work would begin on identifying safe routes of passage for commercial traffic through the waterways - in particular routes in and out of the Baltic Sea towards the English Channel.

An emergency Riksdag sitting is called.

 

[NagandEmerald]

With the German Reich finally beginning to melt and the last of the damages being repaired, the all-clear was given for all asylum seekers to finally return to their homes. The Federal Government in Munich relocated back to Berlin and, eventually, all of the Asylum seekers, including the Royal Family, returned to their homes to begin the reconstruction efforts. However, with the fact that, now, the German government was in-debt to its people, and local governments and peoples, in particular in northern German states, were angry about how the government "abandoned" Berlin, it would be nothing in comparison to the protests hosted by the Yellow Vests in France.

An emergency press conference was called by the Kaiser to discuss on what the government was planning to do with the new economic and societal strain thanks to the winter, and what was planned to ensure that proper warnings would be put into effect the next time a storm like this happened.

 

[John]

With the Winter in Europe situation coming to an end, the ships that had previously been stationed in the English Channel would be ordered to return to their homeports. The supply fleet that had been deployed from america would turn on their heels and begin to trek across the Atlantic, whilst the two LPDs that were deployed from Portsmouth would also head back into port - with people still on board that needed to be returned home ASAP.

The fleet travelling across the atlantic would still be refuelling and resupplying when and where needed. Morale on the ships would be high, the sailors feeling good about themselves that they managed to do some good in Europe before it was too late.

 

[Odinson]

The Great Winter of 2012 was finally over. Temperatures over Europe have returned to mostly normal - perhaps slightly colder than normal in some places. Arctic ice that had reached down to the cliffs and rocky beaches of Scotland have by now melted and retreated to their normal range north of the Arctic circle. Flora and fauna have begun their natural spring rituals a bit later than normal, but otherwise Mother Nature has showed resilience and adaptation as she always does. Farmers across Europe are now faced with a shortened growing season, which isn't optimal, but things could be much worse. As of now, everything is effectively back to normal with some minor colder temperatures in some parts of Europe.

The scientific conclusions of this event remain a partial mystery, mostly due to the lack of attempts by nations to organize an international or even national scientific efforts to understand what happened, however some countries like Norway, the United Kingdom, and The Netherlands due have some interesting data and observations that have led to a general consensus of what happened.

Essentially, The Great Winter of 2012 was a perfect storm of two or three regional atmospheric/lithospheric events. First, part of the global thermohaline system (an underwater current of warm water that flows from the Atlantic to the North Atlantic which keeps Western and Northern Europe warm) experienced a major disruption. Effectively, warm water ceased flowing into the North Atlantic which ceased the warming of waters in the North Sea. At the same time, a major Arctic oscillation (a massive polar cold front of Arctic temperatures and weather) occurred and begin to sweep south towards Europe, bringing frigid temperatures and terrible weather with it. The effects of this oscillation were amplified by the fact that there was no longer any warm current of water in the North Atlantic or North Sea. These two scenarios - the regional disruption of the thermohaline system and the Arctic oscillation - caused a positive feedback loop which essentially amplified the problems caused by each.

For example, the worst effects of the Arctic oscillation was allowed to move further south because of the lack of heat in the North Atlantic, meanwhile the North Atlantic cooled even faster because of the Arctic oscillation. This is why ice formed in the North Sea and North Atlantic in places where ice hasn't been for at least one-thousand years. In reality, this could have been permanent in some sense. What saved Northern Europe and Western Europe from being climatically identical to their latitudinal parallels in Northern Canada is that the regional disruption of the thermohaline system ended. In other words, warm water started to once again flow from the Atlantic to the North Atlantic again. Had this not happened, Europe would be in another "Little Ice Age" type scenario for the foreseeable future, comparable to what was experienced from approximately the early 16th to early 18th centuries in Europe.

What caused the thermohaline disruption that nearly doomed Europe? In short, the scientists of the world aren't 100% sure, but they have a pretty good educated guess. If you're still reading this, then you've made it through my use of scientific terminology (+1 brownie points for you). This next part isn't too hard to understand, so bare with me.

The way the thermohaline system works - at least in the case of Europe and the North Atlantic - is that hot water from the tropics flows up the Atlantic, past North America, and then gets to southern Greenland. Roughly half of it flows south-west of Greenland, while the other half flows to warm the North Atlantic. This system "Thermohaline" has two root-words: "Thermo" and "Haline". "Thermo" refers to the temperature of the water in the current, and "Haline" refers to the amount of salt in the water. Believe it or not, the salt content of the water is VITAL for this system to work properly (this is where some basic thermodynamics and chemistry come together, so stick with me here).

1. Salt water is more dense than fresh water. This means that salt water, in an isolated environment like a glass box, will settle towards the bottom of the box, while water towards the top will be fresher, and there will be more mixing near the middle.
2. Hot water will flow towards the surface, cold water will settle towards the bottom.

Makes sense? Well consider how the thermohaline system normally functions in the North Atlantic: a current of hot, salty water is flowing from the topics up past North America and to the North Atlantic. Despite the fact that our hot current of water is saltier than the seawater around it, it is closer to the surface because it is hot. However, as it flows north, it begins to lose that thermal energy to the sea and atmosphere (this is what warms Europe). As this hot current approaches the Arctic, it cools to the point that the thermal energy of it can no longer off-balance the higher density of this saltier water. So, what happens? This current of salty water rapidly descends closer to the seafloor and then begins flowing south towards the tropics. Once it reaches the tropics, it warms again, and makes its journey back to the North Atlantic. And that's is basically how it works!

So what caused the disruption of this system?

Scientists of the aforementioned countries believe that increasing melting Arctic ice (mostly from Greenland and the Arctic ice cap, as a result of global warming) is what disrupted the system. All Arctic ice is fresh (when salt water freezes, what actually happens is that the dissolved salts do not freeze with the ice. That's why if you take a chunk of ice from - for example - and iceberg floating in the ocean, and melt it, it will be almost pure water with no salt in it). Remember our happy hot-water, salty current that is able to flow North? It does not like this extra addition of freshwater from additional melting ice. This freshwater makes the density of ocean water in the Arctic, and to a lesser-extent the North Atlantic, less dense. If you remember what we discussed before, the hot part of our thermohaline system is saltier and naturally wants to flow down beneath the fresher water near the surface, but the fact that it is hotter is what allows it to remain nearer to the surface - well because the surrounding waters are even less dense than normal because of the freshwater, and because the current is not any hotter than normal, it naturally cannot make it as far north. This means that less and less of Europe experiences the benefits of this hot-water current.

What happened here is basically a worst-case scenario. Not only was the thermohaline system weakened by the melting ice, but it temporarily altered course so that - for a period of months - there was a near-zero warming of the North Atlantic. This is what allowed ice to cover the North Atlantic, and this is what aided the Arctic oscillation in making the severe winter weather even worse than normal. The scientists in Europe would come to the conclusion that it was partially by sheer luck that the thermohaline disruption was not permanent. They would also conclude that continued warming of the Northern Hemisphere, and thus melting Arctic ice, could cause this to happen again. This is a wake up call to address global climate change.

⌈ MN EVENT CONCLUSION ⌋
THIS IS THE OFFICIAL CONCLUSION OF "WINTER IS COMING"
National death-counts will be posted soon
Thank you for your participation​