[ABC]: South Australia and Tasmania Votes 2014

[Owen]

"Good Evening I'm Leigh Sales from the ABC's Adelaide Studios,

The polls are seconds away from closing in Tasmania. Here in South Australia, the polls will close in half an hours time. Joining me in the studio tonight is none other then the ABC's election analyst Antony Green. We are joined by two panels this evening, one in the Adelaide Studios and one in the Hobart Studios in Tasmania. In the Adelaide Studios we have Deputy Leader of the South Australian Liberal Party and hopeful Deputy Premier, Vickie Chapman, also joining her is Peter Malinauskas, the Labor Member for Croydon. We are also joined on the panel by Rob Lucas, the Shadow Treasurer and Tom Koutsantonis, the current Treasurer to go through and help us collect results from all the booths.

Well these campaigns have geared up to be interesting ones indeed, the Labor Party in South Australia has been in power for 12 years now since 2002 and the Liberals are hopeful of being able to persuade the election that change is needed. The Labor Party in Tasmania has been in power for 8 years now and following the resignation of former Premier Lara Giddings, they have a new Premier in Rebecca White. The Labor Party all but wiped out the Liberal Party in Tasmania at the 2013 Federal Election but will this translate into state politics? In South Australia, Labor goes into the race behind in the two-party preferred but due to an uneven distribution of seats, they still command a majority in the South Australian House of Assembly. For the run down of key seats I'm joined by Antony Green."

"Well we will start with Tasmania, the polls have been showing that the Liberal Party could be slightly up at this election and there could be a significant swing towards the Greens. Does this mean the Liberal Party has secured enough to form Government in Tasmania? Who knows. The Labor Party and the Greens are currently in a coalition to command a majority in the Tasmanian House of Assembly and in the likelihood of a hung parliament, that will probably remain. The Liberals are hopeful of picking up seats in Bass and Braddon, the seats to the North-West and North-East of Tasmania including both Flinders and King Islands but this would be against the Greens to which the polls are showing quite a strong result for them. Maybe one in Franklin against Labor. If they can get one seat in Braddon, Bass and Franklin each that would be enough for a majority. Currently, the Liberals have two in every seat, Labor have two in every seat and the Greens have one in every seat, so it is evenly split across the board. Can Labor pick up enough seats to govern in its own right? I highly doubt that. That would require them to pick up 3 seats to reach the magic number of 13. They could do it in Braddon against the Greens and they could do it in Lyons also against the Greens. The last third seat they could pick up against all odds is one in Denison, but that would require the Green vote to plummet there and we're talking the west side of Hobart here and the Hobart City Centre so I highly doubt that. I don't think Labor can govern in their own right tonight, I think the Liberals have a chance, but we will probably see a repeated result of a hung parliament with the Greens holding the balance of power again."

"Okay and in South Australia?"

"Well South Australia is a funny one, because Labor at the 2010 election were on about 48% to the Liberals 52% on two-party preferred. It's clear that South Australia is struggling in areas of gerrymandering but when the seats have 25,000 electors each it becomes difficult to maintain a perfect even system. ECSA, to the surprise of many have not done a redistribution yet and so Labor are going into this election with high chances. The problem for Labor is, all the Liberals seat margins are pretty high, they would need a 4.1% uniform swing just to gain a single seat. As for the Liberals, they would only need a 2.2% swing to unseat the Labor government and a further 3.6% swing to form government in their own right. The only seats in this whole election with a margin of less than 2% are Labor's Chloe Fox's seat of Bright and the Independent Mount Gambier, held by Don Pegler. He is up for a tough fight with the polls suggesting Troy Bell, the Liberal candidate in Mount Gambier doing quite well to take that seat from him. That will take the Liberals up to 19, but the magic number is 24. Labor have not launched huge campaigns into Liberal seats and this election has been battled out in Labor held seats of Bright, Mitchell, Florey, Newland, Hartley and Elder."

"Thank you Antony."

The panel would get to general chit chat about policy and the election and their hopeful results for tonight as the results begin coming in.

 

[Owen]

"We're getting some results in from Antony Green. Antony?"

"Yes Leigh, well we have 25% of the vote counted in Tasmania at the moment and lets have a look at the statewide primary vote."

"Labor's primary vote has gone down by about 9%, the Liberals are up slightly on 3% and the Greens are up by 6%. This clearly translates into a move away from the Labor Party, but that most of thoses vote have infact gone to the Greens rather then the Liberals which is surprising given the Greens are in government with Labor. Could possibly just be more people wishing to see the Greens in control of that Coalition government rather than trying to oust the Labor Government. With the strong swing to the Greens with only a minor swing to the Liberals, I don't think the Liberals can pick up the seats in Braddon or Franklin they hoped for. Franklins vote for the Labor Party has completely slumped and will leave them with about 1 seat, but its also where the strongest Green vote is, so the Greens will pick up a seat from Labor in Franklin. In Bass, theres a strong possibility the Liberals could pick up a seat from Labor though. The last possible seat change we could expect to see tonight would be a Labor seat in Denison going to the Greens, but that one will come down to the wire. At this stage though I am predicitng the election and I will say that there will be a hung parliament in Tasmania, there is no possibility for any of the parties to form a majority, the Liberal gain is weak and the Labor and Greens vote is almost even. This means there is a possibility of Rebecca White being returned as Premier, but I feel like the Greens will want to re-negotiate their Coalition agreement with them so that they have more power, possibly even making Cassy O'Connor the Premier or Deputy Premier of Tasmania. I don't know, they will negotiate that, but I am calling this election for a hung parliament with a return of the Labor-Greens coalition."

"What's happening in South Australia?"

"Well just as I predicted, a 7% swing to Troy Bell in Mount Gambier, it looks like the Independent Don Pegler there will lose his seat he held on 0.4%. Let's have a look at the statewide primary vote. We have Greens up, Family First up slightly, Labor down slightly and the Liberals down a far bit. On two-party preferred this translating to about a 2% swing towards Labor statwide. On a seat by seat basis let's take a look. As for those Labor seats, there are minor swings to Labor in Bright, Florey, Newland, Hartlery and Elder but I want to come to Mitchell where Corey Wingard the Liberal candidate is polling a 3.6% swing. On that swing that would have him winning that seat. On the other side of the pendulum there are mixed swing results, some swings to the Liberals and some swings to Labor. In Adelaide though, Jo Chapley the Labor candidate is polling well on more than 4.5% at this rate which would see her gain that seat if that continues. Only 20% counted there and I am still waiting on some booths, but its looking good for Labor there. The independents Bob Such and Geoff Brock are recording swings to them and won't look like losing their seats. South Australia is not seeing much movement, with this 2% swing towards Labor and the uneven distribution of seats I am calling this election for Labor and the Weatherill Government has been returned comfortably, but we will see what happens and if we see a return of Labor in the lead of the two-party preferred. I would say that if they aren't, ECSA will do quite a significant shakeup of the electorates to make sure the next election in 4 years time would see the Liberals win if there is no change of vote or a swing towards them."

"There you have it, Antony Green calling the South Australian election for the Labor Party and Tasmania a hung parliament yet again. We will continue bringing you the results as they come in."