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The Mosul Strike

Jay

Dokkaebi
GA Member
Oct 3, 2018
3,838
SECRET


In the dimly lit intelligence briefing room, two Shadowy figures flickered against the stark white walls. A large table dominated the center, covered with a spread of maps, satellite images, and reports. Seated at the table were two high-ranking officers wearing military uniforms, Lt. General Tasar Kılıç, Commander of TSK-Irak Forces Ground Operations, and General Salih Zeki Çolak, the Tactical Commander of Operation Tigris Shield.

The two scanned the documents with a practiced eye, his brow furrowing in frustration.

“It’s hard to believe we’re relying on Iraqi intel,” Kılıç began, his voice low, “We’ve seen how unreliable they can be. How can we trust they’ve actually spotted Bahoz Erdal, Besê Hozat, and Mustafa Karasu?”

Çolak's eyes narrowed, his jaw tightening. “Trust is a luxury we can’t afford right now. If they’re right, and we wait too long, we risk losing the opportunity of a lifetime.” The clock on the wall ticked ominously.

“What about the Iraqi intelligence?” Kılıç continued, shifting the conversation back to the tip-off. “Are we sure this information is reliable? They’ve been known to mislead us before.”

“Let’s not kid ourselves,” Çolak shot back, his frustration palpable. “We have a visual on the target. We can’t allow uncertainty to dictate our actions. We strike now. No more deliberation.”

“Visual confirmation from the Air Force isn’t enough,” Kılıç continued, his voice barely above a whisper now. “If we launch an airstrike based on flimsy intel, it could backfire. The backlash would be catastrophic. Not just politically, but also for our forces on the ground. We are facing daily attacks from militants and the local population is getting restless.”

Çolak's gaze flickered to the documents again. He leaned in closer, lowering his voice even further. “Then what do you suggest? We do nothing? We let them slip through our fingers again?”

“General,” Kılıç replied, his voice edged with calm, “we have to consider our options carefully. I won’t be responsible for a strike that leads to us striking Iraq's enemies, not our own, or, worse, causes collateral damage based on flimsy evidence.” He exhaled sharply. “I seriously can not stress the reality of the ground situation. The Iraqis are not fighting the PKK and the people are turning against us. I don’t have a good feeling about this at all. An airstrike in a city center, seriously.”

A heavy silence settled in the room, broken only by the distant hum of machinery and the soft, rhythmic ticking of the clock. “Have we considered alternatives?” Çolak finally asked, “Do you think we could send special forces on the ground to kill/capture…do you think the Iraqis would do it for us…you said it yourself. The Iraqis will not fight them and are too corrupt. It is too densely populated for a raid. We’d be sending our men into another Black Hawk Down.”

Kılıç shook his head, frustration etched in his features. “You underestimate the Iraqi government’s ability to spin this. They’re not our allies. They’re merely partners of convenience. They do not have any desires here except to keep us preoccupied enough to line their pockets. If we strike the PKK leadership, it’ll have a ripple effect on the organization, and even worse we might actually hit the wrong target, especially on such light intelligence.”

“We need to act now, before they disperse,” Çolak urged, frustration bubbling beneath the surface. “We can’t allow them to regroup or seek shelter. They’ll only grow stronger, and our window is closing.”

Kılıç leaned back, his fingers tapping rhythmically against the table. “Fine, let’s assume we proceed with the strike. How are we going to hit them in such a densely populated area?

“It is a risk we have to take. We do it,” Çolak replied. “We don’t have the luxury of time. We must strike. Prepare the briefing for the strike team.” He leaned back, momentarily lost in thought. “We use special diameter bombs to hit the building and level it.”

Kılıç shook his head slowly, the tension in his posture grew. “That only deals with those in the vicinity of the strike, it is likely civilians could be inside, or the PKK has munitions that cook off. If you carry on with this strike, it’ll put our men in the field at danger for retaliation.”

“If we don’t we allow our people to be at risk every day.” Çolak said as he slammed his hand on the table. “Enough is enough. Our men are already targets. Every day. Every second. How many more funerals do you want us to attend.” Çolak replied as he got up and left Kılıç to ponder on his own.
“The airstrike needs to happen within the next hour,” Tasar conceded, his voice a low growl. “But we have to consider the consequences. We can’t afford another scandal.”

“Scandal?” Çolak scoffed, the contempt in his voice unmistakable. “What we’re talking about here is much larger than a scandal, Lt. Kılıç. This is about dismantling their leadership before they can enact their plans and recruit others. If we hesitate, the fallout will be catastrophic. We’re at war. Let the historians debate whether we were right or wrong. Let them write their books, hold their conferences, and pass their judgments. But let them do it in the safety we create. If we fail today, there may be no one left to judge us tomorrow.”

Kılıç’s hesitated. “Listen,” Kılıç said, leaning in closer, his voice dropping. “If we proceed without considering the consequences, we’re not just risking our positions. We’re risking lives. Innocent lives.”

“War is not innocent, General,” Çolak snapped, his irritation bubbling to the surface. “These men are responsible for countless deaths. We’re not here to play nice. We’re here to eliminate threats. We cannot let empathy cloud our judgment. Spending too much time with the locals has made you soft. That is truly disappointing.”

Kılıç's voice lowered even further, the intensity sharpening. “You know as well as I do that the fallout from this could be catastrophic for our forces on the ground. The PKK hasn’t been able to respond because of the air tempo. However we haven’t been able to make ground movement because of local constraints, Peshmerga forces operating on the other side of the border, and a general hostility to have us leave.”

“Then we ensure it doesn’t go south,” Çolak replied. “We’ve planned for contingencies. Our forces will be in position, and we have air support ready to engage. It’s time to show them the consequences of their actions.”

“What if the Iraqi intelligence is playing both sides?” Kılıç pressed. “We’ve seen it before. They could be using us to eliminate their own enemies. We don’t know who else is at the meeting.”

Çolak's eyes narrowed. “If they are meeting with the PKK, then they are working in conjunction with them. We are not here to play the Iraqis' game. They gave us information that is actionable. Therefore we will act.”

Kılıç took a deep breath, considering his words. “What if the Kurds don’t want the PKK to bring violence in the region? Maybe the Kurdish elders and factions are trying to tame the PKK. What if we are destroying a real chance for legitimate peace?”

The room fell silent for a moment at the insulation. Çolak's eyes flickered with something, perhaps admiration, perhaps annoyance, but he held his tongue for a moment.

“I understand that,” Çolak's insisted, “but we must also be mindful of the paths we choose. Every action has consequences, yes, but we have to make choices about life and death every day. By allowing possibility to govern us not reality we put the future of our families, our soldiers, and this country at stake. We must react with the present. I will recommend this to the joint operations center for targeting planning. Have your men readied for potential land incursions General.”
 

Jay

Dokkaebi
GA Member
Oct 3, 2018
3,838
SECRET


General Çolak stood at the head of the table, a map of Mosul spread out before him. “The Prime Minister's office has given us the greenlight to begin targeting persons of interest. We have a target in Mosul, PKK leaders are currently gathering in a house inside the city center. We've confirmed that Gurbuz Zeki Dokumaci Mustafa, Oran Huyla, and Kani Yilmaz are going to be at the meeting. We've confirmed Gurbuz and Kani with our drone flights and corroborated based on local intelligence, entering in a house within a densely populated area. An F-16 will carry out the strike to minimize risk to Turkish ground personnel..”

Lt. Güller, the Military Legal Advising Officer for the Joint Operations Center, shifted in his seat. “General, while I acknowledge that this appears to be a legitimate target, I must emphasize the potential legal risks associated with this operation. Targeting a site in a crowded area in the afternoon raises significant concerns about civilian casualties.”

Çolak nodded. “I understand these concerns, Lieutenant, however, this is a specific strike on a legitimate target. What else is there?”

Lt. Güller straightened. “General, first, while those three individuals are likely combatants. I've read the same intel report and it says they are meeting with local elders and Kurdish officials. How comfortable are we with such a strike? We must assess whether the house serves a legitimate military purpose. If targeting these leaders can demonstrably contribute to our military objectives, it strengthens our case for the strike,” Güller replied. “We also need to evaluate the immediacy of the threat. Given that this is a target of opportunity, we must determine if there’s a time-sensitive justification for action.”

“What about our intelligence on the location, it is being used by combatants and is not being used for civilian purposes? They are planning attacks and working with local officials to get their consent.” Çolak asked.

“Absolutely critical if an accepted assertion,” Güller affirmed. “We need to verify that our intelligence regarding their presence is reliable. If there’s any uncertainty about additional occupants, that could complicate our decision. And civilians?” Güller said looking at the General.

Çolak sighed, “Yes, there is a risk. However we are talking about the co-founders of PKK. Right now. In that house. This is a market area, after all. There will be civilians nearby. Surely the fact that they are using them as human shields shouldn’t require us not to strike them?”

“Correct,” Güller continued. “However we must evaluate the potential number of civilians in the vicinity. Given the crowded market, we should analyze expected civilian casualties based on the timing and nature of the strike. The principle of proportionality, the anticipated military advantage must outweigh the risk of collateral damage. Güller explained. “Are there alternatives we should consider?” Güller inquired.

“Definitely,” Çolak responded. “We have considered them. This is the least harmful approach we can use. We need to be able to hit them now. We don't have time to wait” Çolak leaned back, furrowing his brow. "We can’t let them slip away."

Güller continued, “I agree, but we must consider that if we authorize a strike that results in civilian casualties, it could amount to a war crime if done indiscriminately and disproportionately."

“What do you suggest?” Çolak asked, looking for guidance.

“Based in this situation it doesn't look like we have the time to issue a warning nor to do a thorough assessment for collateral damage." Güller replied.

Çolak nodded thoughtfully. “We've done a preliminary analysis we are estimating 20-28. But otherwise you believe this is a viable target, but the risks need to be addressed comprehensively?”

“You can say that, General,” Güller confirmed.

General Çolak considered the implications, growing rather tired of all the roadblocks being put in front of his ability to attack. “Thank you, Lt. Güller. I've considered all you've said. I'll expect your approval on my desk within the next ten minutes.” Çolak said as he stood up and walked out of the legal advising room.

Following some deliberation, it was concluded that the strike had the potential, with a modified payload to reduce collateral damage. However, the Military added an additional scenario that PKK munitions may be hidden underneath and that may cause that number to double. Ultimately, after changing the type of munition used in the strike, and deliberation on the military necessity of the strike, the Legal Advisors approved the strike.
 

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