[MN] Winter is Coming

[Odinson]

Autumn was now well underway throughout Europe, and soon winter would be upon the continent. With the past months having been some of the most economically stable and politically stable for quite some time, many people around the continent were starting to get more comfortable as they settled down and prepared for Christmas.

At the beginning of November, temperature data from the North Sea and Norwegian Sea would appear to be strangely low and stable. As the month of November went on, water temperatures in those parts of the Atlantic continued to get colder and colder. By November 15, the North Sea and Norwegian Sea were well below their normal temperature range. For example, surface seawater temperatures off the coast of the Faroe Islands would normally be anywhere from 10-12 degrees Celsius in mid-November. However, by November 15, measurements were reading 5 degrees or below. Temperatures of seawater around the Norwegian Island of Jan Mayen were at 1 degrees Celsius, while they would normally be about 3-4 degrees this time of year. Something also of note was that water temperatures in the Labrador Sea (off the coast of southern Greenland) were much warmer than they normally were, just as temperatures in the Norwegian and North Sea were much colder than normal. So far, temperatures off the coast of the Shetland Islands, Northern Scotland, and Norway appeared to be within normal ranges.

Any nation with scientists, ocean-based buoys, scientific research ships, or other scientific monitoring equipment in these areas would be able to detect these temperature anomalies. For anyone to possibly discern what the anomalies mean, however, they would first need to notice the data.

 

[Odinson]

This is the response of Norway, NOT an official MN Event response

Norwegian scientists stationed on Jan Mayen island were very curious about the near-freezing seawater temperatures. What was especially interesting, though, was that the temperatures were consistently going down and that it didn't seem to be an anomaly. The lead scientist at the research station ordered for most of the major monitoring equipment to be recalibrated. Meanwhile, a call was made to scientists in Svalbard to ask if they were having any temperature anomalies in their part of the Arctic.

 

[Odinson]

This is an official MN Event response. Please note that European players who aren't directly mentioned are free to reply to this thread (and encouraged to do so).

It's now November 25. Seawater temperatures around Europe have continued to collapse in quite a dramatic fashion. For example, the Faroe Islands which would normally have seawater temperatures around 7-8 degrees Celsius this time of year have fallen to 0 degrees. Waters at the mouth of the Themes estuary off the coast of London should be 11-12, but they are now hovering around 6-7. Almost the entire Baltic Sea, which should be anywhere from 5-8 degrees, has fallen to mostly freezing or maybe 1 degrees. Despite the fact that scientists in most of Western and Northern Europe have failed to notice these dramatic changes so far, they can no longer be ignored. Oceanographers and meteorologists alike would quickly be able to come to the conclusion that ocean temperatures in the Northern Atlantic were in a freefall.

So far, however, the inactivity of governments means that state-operated meteorological and scientific services have done little to no research into what is occurring. As of now, they only know that ocean temperatures around Europe are spiraling down. The fall in ocean temperatures of this caliber around Europe is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years, so it would make sense that it would cause much alarm.

So far, most civilian weather authorities in the British Isles, Scandinavia, and parts of Western Europe have only detected air temperatures slightly below average. However, they don't have to national/governmental coordination of sovereign governments or universities, and may not be noticing regional or global atmospheric trends.


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UNITED KINGDOM
During Prime Minister's Questions, a backbencher from the Highlands of Scotland began to speak after being recognized by the Speaker of the House of Commons.

"Thank you, Mister Speaker," the MP said in his thick, highlander accent. He looked through his reading spectacles at a paper he was holding, and began his prepared question.

"Mister Speaker, I have here a message from a friend of mine from the University of Edinburgh, Dr. Jacob Williams. He's written an email to me with some pretty startling information. He says that he and other scientists from the university have taken ocean temperature readings off the coast of the Outer Hebrides. He says that their temperature readings are at, or just one degree above freezing when the waters there should be about ten degrees this time of year. One of my constituents, who is a fisherman from Inverness says he and his colleagues haven't caught a thing in the past week. Mister Speaker, has the Prime Minister spoken to anyone at the Met Office or from the Department for Environment about these temperature abnormalities?"

The MP was done speaking, and waited for the Prime Minister's reply.

"Prime Minister," said the Speaker as he recognized him to answer.
@Jamie


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KINGDOM OF IRELAND
Tourists and citizens alike complained of the unusually cold waters in the Irish Sea. Irish fishermen were also reporting that yields were significantly down, and some were voicing concerns to the new Irish government that there may have been some kind of oil spill or environmental disaster that has killed the fish. Another interesting anomaly is that on that day, November 25, it did not rain anywhere in Ireland. In fact, the skies were totally clear, and the air was very calm.
@Dragon


::::::::::::::::::::


ITEMS OF INTEREST
1. No government or public institutions know, or have inquired as to why, European sea temperatures are falling.
2. No one is aware why fishing in the Norwegian Sea and North Atlantic has suddenly become very lackluster.
3. No nation has ordered an organized effort into observing any large-scale ocean or atmospheric temperature changes north of Europe.


::::::::::::::::::::


Below is a representation of the changing OCEAN temperatures. The colors are coordinated to temperatures in Celsius. The first map are what normal ocean temperatures would be for November 25, the second map is what the temperatures actually are right now.

Polar Ice Cap Pink
-2 Violet
-1 Purple
0 (Freezing) Blue
1 Light Blue
2 Turquoise
3 Green
4-7 Yellow
8-10 Orange
11+ Red

(Normal November Ocean Temperatures)

Polar Ice Cap Pink
-2 Violet
-1 Purple
0 (Freezing) Blue
1 Light Blue
2 Turquoise
3 Green
4-7 Yellow
8-10 Orange
11+ Red

(Current Ocean Conditions)

 

[Dutchy]

The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research would issue a directive to the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research to begin investigating the anomalies being detected in the nearby waters. The institute would deploy the RV Pelagia to begin testing of the nearby waters in an attempt to try and understand what was happening.

The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, seeing a rise in extreme temperature anomalies especially after the summer heatwave, would contact the all active scientific organisations within Europe, contacting them in the hope of cooperation for the investigation into the cooling waters.

 

[Zak]

At the University of Oviedo in the Asturias region, specifically in one of the science laboratory's, a group of masters degree students would be hard at work but one student was browsing the internet as he gathered information for his final end of term assignment but his eyes brought him to a forum which a lot of fishermen across the European region had been posting about the anomalies and that they had not been gathering enough from their trips. Lots of theories had started running through the students head and decided that he would report this to his teacher in the hopes that they could research into the issue.

Hours after the first discovery by the student, the evidence had been quickly passed up the chain of command to the Minister of Science, Innovation and Universities and then onto the Minister for the Ecological Transition who had began meetings with each other to discuss a strategy to monitor the on goings and hoped that it would not spread into Spanish waters.

The General Director of Sustainability of the Coast and the Sea who was a senior member of the Ministry of Ecological Transition would head to Gijón in the north of Spain with a team of five scientists where they would meet the student and his professor where they would begin to gather information and would monitor any changes.

The Civil Guard would inform any ships in the region such as fishing trawlers to report any changes that they may think that is happening to them and then they would pass it onto the researchers in Gijón.

 

[Dragon]

The Irish Government would watch the pattern of events with a feeling of intense curiousity advising all fishermen to report any such changes regarding fish population or water temperature. Apart from that the government would maintain its normal hands off policy towards commerce and the like.

 

[Odinson]

This is an official MN Event response. Please note that European players who aren't directly mentioned are free to reply to this thread (and encouraged to do so).

The date is still ~November 25.


KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Scientists aboard the RV Pelagia would at first think their equipment was malfunctioning. Water temperatures off the coast of The Netherlands were reading a cold 4 degrees when they would normally be around 13 this time of year. Never in the modern era had temperatures here been recorded below 11 degrees this time of year. It was a new record, and completely uncalled for. Data alone for this one location was not enough to come to any conclusions, but if the situation was similar throughout the rest of Europe, it was apparent that there had been some major change or anomaly in either the atmosphere or hydrosphere or both.

The Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research also found something else interesting. While the North Sea was within the natural range of Atlantic Cod, fishermen seemed to be filling their quotas incredibly fast. Public reports and complaints from around northern Europe and Britain, however, indicated that their yields were exceptionally low.


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KINGDOM OF SPAIN
Reports to the Civil Guard from Spanish fishermen were probably the opposite of what they were expecting. Fishermen off the coast of Spain were quickly filling their quotas due to what seemed to be an unusually high number of fish in the area. This burst in resource availability was putting it on track to be the most productive fishing season in at least the last 50 years. The Spanish scientists found that while their waters were not incredibly cold, they were a few degrees cooler than normal, and appeared to still be dropping. One of them, perhaps the professor, may have gotten the idea that there could possibly be a major disruption of normal patterns in either the atmosphere or hydrosphere that were causing these changes. However, they would need more shared data and observations to find out what was going on.


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KINGDOM OF IRELAND
Reports flooded in to the Irish government of frustrated fisherman and trade unions. While they were still bringing in yields, they were noticeably reduced, especially for those who were fishing far north from Ireland.


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KINGDOM OF NORWAY
While temperatures were normally very cold in and around Jan Mayen, things were getting much colder. Ocean temperatures there were now decidedly Arctic, and air temperatures were dropping as well. Scientists on Svalbard would face similar findings. The small meteorological centers on Jan Mayen and Svalbard were able to observe that the Icelandic Low, which is part of the North Atlantic Oscillation, was weakening, and its center was migrating west towards southern Greenland (its center would normally be over western Iceland).

Image of the "Icelandic Low", a semi-permanent low that normally exists between Greenland&Iceland at varying strengths.

 

[Odinson]

This is the response of Norway, NOT an official MN Event response

Minister of Environment, Oscar Lund, was drinking a cup of coffee, he had just gotten off the phone with scientists from Jan Mayen who were giving him updated atmospheric information. After a short series of knocks on his office door, his secretary brought in a number of folders.

"Mister Minister," she said. "The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, and the Spanish Ministry of Ecological Transition are both requesting data about what's happening off the coast of Svalbard and Jan Mayen. They're reporting very unusual sea temperatures as well."
"Yeah," he said as he picked his hands up in frustration, "let's share what we have, because quite frankly this seems to be a lot bigger than just the Arctic or Norwegian Sea."

All relevant scientific data for this issue that the Ministry of Environment had was shared with the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research. This included below freezing waters off the coast of Jan Mayen and Svalbard, the exceptional lack of fishing stocks off the coast of northern Norway and the aforementioned territories, and data that suggested that Icelandic Low was both weakening and migrating away from Iceland and towards southern Greenland. He also gave the contact information for scientists on Jan Mayen, Svalbard, and other Norwegian scientific outposts in Norway and overseas territories.

Scientific data was also shared with the Spanish. Shortly after this order was given, it appeared that there was a call from the Spanish Minister of Ecological Transition for Minister Lund.

 

[Jamie]

---

With Jericho Bourne recently making his return to the United Kingdom from Norway, it was safe to say the first House of Commons Session regarding the temperature was unexpected; especially given the consideration that he had just climatised to low temperatures he felt in Norway. The Prime Minister, patiently silent until the Member of Parliament from Scotland pitched his question, before responding:

"I would like to thank my honourable friend for the question. With my return flight entering London yesterday, I unfortunately haven't been able to attend such a meeting as of yet. I do, however, have a meeting at the Met Office tomorrow regarding these concerns. I am aware other countries within Europe have also opened a conference call which the Secretary of State for Climate Change will be entering and representing the country. We will be sure to release an update on that, and my meeting with the Met Office tomorrow."

Government and non-government Departments, including that of the Met Office have combined efforts to carry out their own testing, reading through their own weather forecasts to determine any possible issues directly relating to the United Kingdom.

---

 

[Odinson]

This is an official MN Event response. Please note that European players who aren't directly mentioned are free to reply to this thread (and encouraged to do so).
NOTE: The date is now December 7.



UNITED KINGDOM & KINGDOM OF NORWAY
British meteorologists did not find anything unusual on the surface when it came to weather, except that it appeared that air temperatures around Europe were slowly starting to dip below average. This was occurring on a large and regional scale in and around Europe. By December 1st, however, oceanographers, marine biologists, and climate scientists at the Met Office (who also had access to Norwegian data from Jan Mayen and Svalbard) clearly saw the trend of lower sea temperatures was not only consistent throughout Europe, but that they were still falling. Sea temperatures around northern Scotland were now -2 degrees Celsius. This was the same temperature that seawater was in the Arctic Sea. Waters just off the coast of New Castle were at freezing, while waters off Bristol and the Themes estuary were about 1 degrees. Data being shared by the Norwegians also showed the air temperatures in Svalbard and Jan Mayen were in a freefall.

A young climatologist who worked for the Met Office in London was working overtime late at night. He was trying to interpret the waterfall of data they were now getting from around Europe. By 1AM, he was getting ready to turn in for the night, when he received a copy of a very disturbing message from the Norwegian scientific outpost on Jan Mayen It was addressed to the Norwegian Minister of Environment. It read:

::::::::::::::::::::

NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
JAN MAYEN METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATION STATION, JAN MAYEN
SUBJECT: REQUESTING EVACUATION /// SEVERE WEATHER /// COMMUNICATION LOSS IMMINENT

7 DECEMBER 2012
02:03​

MINISTER LUND,

WE HAVE BEEN GRAVELY MISTAKEN. THE WEATHER IS GETTING SEVERE ON THE ISLAND.

-TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN FROM -3 DEGREES CELSIUS TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND POSSIBLY STILL DROPPING.
-WIND GUSTS OF 119 KILOMETERS PER HOUR CONFIRMED [NEVER RECORDED, NEW RECORD. WORRYING].
-SEA TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE MEASURED TODAY, ICE NOW SURROUNDING ISLAND.

DATA CONFIRMS THAT A MAJOR HIGH PRESSURE FRONT IS OVER JAN MAYEN NOW, MIGRATING SOUTH. EXPECT MAJOR TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER ANOMALIES IN COMING DAYS. FOCUS SCIENTIFIC EFFORTS ON STUDYING ANOMALY. CONTACT SVALBARD FOR MORE DATA. WIND GUSTS ARE STRESSING STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF BUILDINGS ON JAN MAYEN. LOSS OF COMMUNICATIONS EXPECTED AT ANY MINUTE. WE WILL COMMUNICATE OVER EMERGENCY LONG-DISTANCE RADIO FREQUENCIES IF TEXT-CHAT NO LONGER AVAILABLE. I AM IN THE OBSERVATION STATION, I NEED TO RETURN TO OLONKINBYEN TO UPDATE OTHERS. THIS STRUCTURE NO LONGER SAFE.

REQUESTING EMERGENCY EVACUATION OF ALL JAN MAYEN PERSONELL. MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE IF WEATHER CONTINEUS TO GET WORSE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEND DATA AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

ALEXANDER PEDERSEN
CHIEF SCIENTIST OF JAN MAYEN
NORWEGIAN METEROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

::::::::::::::::::::

The young climatologist, named Edwin, checked new data from the Arctic which confirmed that a high pressure system was raging over Jan Mayen, and that it was indeed moving south. However, because it was coming directly from the Arctic, this was no normal front - it couldn't be. After doing some math on the size of the front, how quickly it was growing per hour, and it's trajectory, he quickly came to the conclusion that a major Arctic Oscillation was inbound to Britain, and would possibly be large enough to consume all of Europe. While this wasn't exactly unheard of, an oscillation of this size was, not to mention the powerful wind, precipitation, and temperature changes coming with it. After triple checking his work, he called the Chief Scientist of the Meteorological Office who made it there by 2AM London time. The Chief Scientist then called the Chief Executive of the Met, who was official in charge of the agency.

Whichever MP that was responsible for their Department was then woken up, and given the information. The Chief Scientist informed him that a "wave" of severe weather would make contact with the Faroe Islands in 12 hours, northern Scotland in about 16 hours, and would be over London in less than 24 hours. He underscored that this was an exceptional weather phenomena, and would likely be a disaster. Because all of Europe was asleep, it appeared that the scientists at the Met Office were the first ones to do the math on the Arctic high pressure system and come to the conclusion that it was a severe Arctic Oscillation.
@Jamie


::::::::::::::::::::


KINGDOM OF SPAIN
As they were around Britain, water temperatures around the rest of northern and most of western Europe continued to fall. Spanish scientists were now able to detect that their waters were approaching 7 degrees to their north, which is very unusual. Also, it appeared that the bountiful number of fish that their fisherman were previously catching had now decreased in the north, and were continuing to move south.

The same student who first noticed the articles about the fishermen had another idea when he heard that the number of fish being caught to the north was decreasing, while it was increasing in the south. He believed that the fish may be instinctively migrating south toward warmer waters. What at first confused him was that Atlantic Cod and other fish were use to the harsh weather in the North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. But then he had the idea, "What if this isn't a temporary temperature drop, and the northern Atlantic is too cold for the fish that are endemic (native) to that part of the sea?"

To test his hypothesis, he met with another grad student who was studying under an oceanographer at the university. Because no one was actively taking data in all of the North Atlantic at the time, they couldn't see the temperatures of all the waters, but from what they could gather, surface and subsurface ocean temperatures had dropped to -2 Celsius (comparable to the Arctic), when they would normally be well-above freezing. What normally kept the north Atlantic warm (and prevented London and Oslo from being as cold as northern Quebec) was a single current that made up the massive Global Thermohaline System. This current went north-east from the mid-Atlantic and brought with it warm, tropical seawater between Iceland and the British Isles. It then became cold, and reverted south. This warm current was critical to the habitability and temperate climate of most of Europe.

The two graduate students believed that the only thing that could be causing water temperature to drop so low is that there has been some major disruption of the current of the Thermohaline Circulation that warms Europe. Because the rest of the world was reporting near-average temperatures, it seemed that this was a disruption of Europe's current, and not a total shutdown of the entire system. While they didn't have all of the evidence to back this up, if this hypothesis was correct, it would be the first time that this happened in modern human history, and it could have the potential to be one of the most devastating natural disasters since The Year Without a Summer. If this were true, the consequences could be not bad, but dire for every nation from Norway to Italy, and from Spain to Turkey.
@Zak


::::::::::::::::::::


KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
The RV Pelagia was now detecting sea temperatures as low as 2 degrees Celsius off the coast of The Netherlands. The bountiful number of fish being caught had now dwindled, giving some Dutch scientists the idea that the fish may be trying to escape cold waters to the North. By December, it was obvious that this was not a temporary anomaly, this was a serious event which was breaking a large number of records at home and abroad. Scientists aboard the RV Pelagia knew that it should be impossible for Dutch waters to get this cold, due to the aforementioned Thermohaline Circulation. Something was terribly wrong - perhaps a disruption of the circulation itself.

With the increased activity in the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, a paper that had been published by Dutch astronomers quickly spread throughout the agency. It concluded that sunspot activity had dropped significantly since September, and that it was very low. This would contribute to colder weather, which Europe was only slightly experiencing now, but it was likely a predicter for weather soon to come. Dutch scientists were not aware of everything known or discovered by climatologists and oceanographers in other countries yet, but many of them had a hunch that Europe was entering some kind of "Perfect Storm" scenario.

Image of Polar Low.

Dutch meteorologists, using data sent to them from the Norwegian territory of Svalbard, were able to detect a large Polar Low forming in the Barren Sea. Polar Lows have not been extensively researched yet, but a simplistic way of explaining them was that they are cold hurricanes/cyclones. These weather events were not as severe as tropical hurricanes, normally, and almost never posed a threat to major population centers because of where they normally occurred (in the Barren Sea, for example). This one, though, was unusually large and appeared to be moving south. Conventional wisdom would say that it should clear up in the next few days.
@Dutchy


::::::::::::::::::::


OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GET COLDER

Recorded on 25 November 2011 (Old)

Polar Ice Cap Pink
-2 Violet
-1 Purple
0 (Freezing) Blue
1 Light Blue
2 Turquoise
3 Green
4-7 Yellow
8-10 Orange
11+ Red

7 December 2011 (Current)

 

[Retroliser]

Due to being too busy returning Turkey to normality after President Erdogan's deposition, The Ottoman Government had been busy focusing on internal matters to the detriment of foreign affairs and external events. Now though, with life almost back to normal, the attention of the cabinet could turn outwards. Finally taking the time to familiarise themselves with the unusual events regarding the temperature of the sea in northern Europe. Unfortunately, the dissolution of The Republican state apparatus meant all assets that could investigate the changes were lost. For now, Ottoman Turkey would have to just watch, wait and hope.

 

[Zak]

The fishermen reported their findings to the Civil Guard and most fishing trawlers returned to port with the last bits from their catch. Some still stayed out but due to the harsh climate, they wouldn't catch much so after a while they would also return to port as they awaited answers from the government as fishmongers now had to ration supplies to make them last.

The two university students had been hard at work, lots of coffee had been consumed and lots of food had been eaten as they continued the long process of testing out many theories that sprung into mind and then they ultimately decided that this could be a potential natural disaster, the biggest since the Year Without a Summer, a lot of research went into this to gather statistics and compared with those of the current day.

The team of scientists in northern Spain would continue to monitor the decreasing temperatures and became worried as they kept falling, all data would be passed up to the Minister of Ecological Transition to feed onto other European nations.

 

[Jamie]

---

The reports from Edwin, an operator in the Met Office were taken seriously by the UK Government. Aware of the disturbing drops of temperature across Europe which has sparked mass concern from a variety of Scientific Offices amongst European Countries had marked the evacuation request as urgent. The Norwegian Government have been forwarded the details of the request for their own records and informed that a contingent of the Royal Air Force will be deploying to support the evacuation of those on. The idea was to get there sooner rather than later to ensure a safe evacuation with no threat to the aircraft. A C130 from the Royal Air Force, No. 5 Squadron A Flight was assigned to the evacuation Operation. Preparations for deployment was expected to take a couple of hours before airborne, ensuring the C-130 was at it's core temperatures, adjusting the setup to ensure it was ski-equipped for any problems from the weather. The crew included RAF Medical Staff, along with supplies in the cargo compartments of food, water and medical supplies; but little enough to keep the plane light.

The Pilots, military-trained and with plenty of experience were to navigate the aircraft to Jan Mayensfield Airstrip on Jan Mayen. Whilst aware through warning of the weather they face, they were instructed to review their course routinely. Ensuring they did not put their own lives on the line, only landing to evacuate those on the island if one-hundred percent confident of their success. Due to the aircraft been based at Brize Norton, they'd initially move to the most north airport in Scotland to refuel before making the journey. An A330 MRTT was also to be active in the north to offer refuelling if required; grounding itself when needed but otherwise offering a chance for the C-130 to refuel if needing to go around, or the return journey back. Naturally the A330 would avoid straying too far north to the bad weather as they'd need to be able to offer air to air refuelling safely. When on the ground at their destination if given the opportunity, the C-130 could refuel then.

Within a couple of hours, the C-130 had set off from Brize Norton, refuelling in Scotland before making for it's destination at the discretion of the pilots. They would only proceed if confident enough to land and handle any weather thrown in their direction, otherwise they would call it off for re-attempt when conditions improve, if at all.

 

[Dragon]

As furious complaints streamed into the prime minister's office in Dublin crowds of fishermen and trade unionists gathered in the streets with the intention of protesting the government's apathetic response to the crisis at hand. Many came waving red banners demanding the nationalisation of the fishing industry along with subsidies for families dependant on a successful catch. The RIC has set up no go zones in order to prevent an outbreak in violence.

 

[Dutchy]

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, after studying weather patterns and came to the conclusion that an unprecedented situation was about to come upon the unprepared Netherlands. A report would be written regarding the situation, along with predictions of what might happen and contingency reports in regards to how to protect the people, nature and economy from this weather. Furthermore the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute would release a weather warning to maritime vessels to be cautious when sailing north towards the polar low and if possible to avoid the weather front.

The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research would continue their studies into the situation with the RV Pelagia remaining off the coast to continue study until they were forced to return to Den Helder either due to the weather, fuel or supplies.

 

[Odinson]

This is the response of Norway, NOT an official MN Event response

The message from Jan Mayen that had automatically been transmitted to the British was, of course, also received by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute who quickly printed it out and brought it to the Minister of Environment, Oscar Lund, who was still up in his office. He was sipping on an early-morning tea as his secretary knocked and brought in a copy of the message to him. Without consulting anyone else, he submitted a response as quickly as possible.

::::::::::::::::::::

NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
OSLO HEADQUARTERS
SUBJECT: RE: REQUESTING EVACUATION /// SEVERE WEATHER /// COMMUNICATION LOSS IMMINENT

7 DECEMBER 2012
02:15​

DR. PEDERSEN,

REMAIN INSIDE AND STAY WARM. SEE TO THE SAFETY OF THOSE UNDER YOUR COMMAND. WE ARE GOING TO DISPATCH A RESCUE TEAM TO JAN MAYEN AS SOON AS POSSIBLE - EITHER BY AIR OR SEA, OR BOTH. ALL FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS WILL BE SENT VIA TEXT AND ALSO OVER THE EMERGENCY LONG-DISTANCE RADIO FREQUENCY. FOLLOW EMERGENCY PROCEDURES AS DESCRIBED IN YOUR GUIDEBOOK.
YOU ARE AUTHORIZED TO USE ANY EQUIPMENT, FUELS, VEHICLES, OR STRUCTURES AT YOUR DISPOSAL TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF YOU AND THOSE UNDER YOUR COMMAND.

WE WILL COME GET YOU.

OSCAR LUND
MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENT
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT

::::::::::::::::::::

Oscar told his secretary to get him in touch with Ingvar, the uncle of King Enoch who was both the Minister of Defense and Chief of Defense of the armed forces - a job that he was likely to retire from soon, but still had for now. Ten minutes later, they were on the phone. Ingavr, who had been in the military for almost his entire life, sounded alert for having just woken up from a much-needed sleep. His voice was deep and slow, and when he spoke, it was often concise.

"This is Minister Ingvar."

"Minister Ingvar, this is Oscar. I'm sorry to call you so early in the morning, but I've just received a destress message from Jan Mayen. What we thought was a cold-spell seems to be a major oscillation of some kind - a high pressure system has been battering Jan Mayen for hours now, and it's only getting worse. We have no idea how long the weather from this front will last. The Chief Scientist there - Dr. Pedersen - requested an emergency evacuation. I told him we'd give it to him. In the past we normally flew C-130s in there, but the winds were last reported at 120 kilometers per hour, and the airfield is challenging because of a wind effect caused by the nearby volcano. We could try be sea, but there is an unspecified amount of ice around the island. I don't think Environment can handle this alone - we need Defense."

"Thank you for that information, Mister Lund. I'm going to leave for Akershus Fortress in a few minutes, and assemble the High Command. I will assemble the high command. Please head here as soon as possible, we will need your knowledge of Jan Mayen - bring anyone you need."

"Thank you, Minister Ingvar. I'll see you soon." Both hung up the phone.

Oscar opened the bottom drawer of his desk and pulled out a new dress shirt. He changed in his office, put on his coat, and headed out where his car was waiting. They went directly to Akershus Fortress, which was a castle so old that even the most respected historians disagreed when it was built. Historians at the University of Oslo believe, however, that the castle was built in the Dark Ages sometime before the 1290s, when it is believed to have been completed. Heavily armed soldiers guarded the empty spaces and streets around the castle - some of them were wearing ceremonial uniforms, while others were in battle fatigues. Oscar was allowed inside and met with the High Command. The result of the meeting was becoming, "We have no means to reach them," when information came in that the British are mounting a rescue mission using a C-130.

Ingvar ordered the General of the Royal Air Force to write a message to the British RAF, outlining the difficulties that the C-130 will face if they do head to Jan Mayen. The message was sent that morning, when the C-130 was probably passing by the Faroe Islands:

::::::::::::::::::::

KINGDOM OF NORWAY
OFFICE OF THE GENERAL OF THE ROYAL AIR FORCE
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
​

SUBJECT: Jan Mayen Rescue Mission
RECIPIENT: Sir Stephen Hillier, Air Chief Marshal of The British Royal Air Force
SECURITY: ENCRYPTED

Air Chief Marshal,

The High Command is hopeful to hear that the RAF is attempting a rescue mission for our scientists on Jan Mayen. I have been ordered by the Chief of Defense to offer any and all information which may help with the success of this mission. They have permission to enter Norwegian airspace and land at Jan Mayensfield.

There are 35 souls on Jan Mayen, all of which are Norwegian citizens. As far as we know, they all remain mobile and have suffered no serious or fatal injuries. They will know that you are coming, and will be prepared as soon as you land.

Landing on Jan Mayen can be a difficult task in good weather. Jan Mayensfield - the only airport on the island - is situated so that it often experiences a Karman Vortex. Whether or not the vortex is present can normally be determined by scientists on the island, but because of the next problem, it will be necessary to assume that it is present. Conditions on the island appear to be low-visibility, which may require a mostly-blind landing, relying on navigational equipment. Finally, there is the risk that landing equipment may freeze to the landing strip itself - we believe that scientists on the island will have anti-freeze or other similar chemicals that can be used to "de-ice" the landing equipment after the landing if necessary. Take note that temperatures have been reported of -25 Celsius.

We will not deny that this mission is dangerous and has a chance of failure. Please contact me, or the Chief of Defense, if any further information is needed. If the mission is a success, we will give clearance for your flight to land anywhere in the Norwegian realm, if that proves to be most convenient.

Very Respectfully,

Dan Jasper
General of The Royal Air Force

::::::::::::::::::::

Detailed maps and all relevant weather and climate data were provided, along with unique landing information at Jan Mayensfield which hadn't been shared with a country since the Cold War.

 

[Dragon]

In Ireland, the number of protests have since increased with many flocking to the banner of the obscure communist party and environmentalist groups. In Dublin, protests turned violent as demonstrators attempted to breach the no go zones set up by the RIC only to be fired upon by armed squads attached to The Dublin Metropolitan Police. The Government is still trying to address the situation but has yet to find a solution worth of satisfying those gathered in the streers.

 

[Odinson]

This is an official MN Event response. Please note that European players who aren't directly mentioned are free to reply to this thread (and encouraged to do so).
NOTE: The month is still November.


SEA TEMPERATURES

Polar Ice Cap Pink
(The Red Line Indicates where the Ice was, the pink beyond it is ice growth)
-2 (Celsius) Violet
-1 Purple
0 (Freezing) Blue
1 Light Blue
2 Turquoise
3 Green
4-7 Yellow

(Late December)

The month of December continued to see a fall in sea temperatures for virtually all of coastal Northern and Western Europe. With the exception of the English channel which remained at about 2 degrees Celsius, almost all of Great Britain and the entirety of the island of Ireland was surrounded by waters that were at or below freezing. Waters now off the coast of the Netherlands and Germany were also exactly at freezing. New data trickled in from commercial aircraft and international trade ships that polar ice was extending far past the normal sea-ice maximum. Almost all of Iceland was surrounded by thick ice, while half of the Baltic Sea was covered in a thick sheet of ice. For context, normally less than a quarter of the Baltic Sea was covered in ice at the coldest part of a normal year. Reports began pouring in from northern Norway that fjords and islands off the coast were being surrounded by thick ice, and that ports were becoming impassable. While southern Norway was not totally incapsulated, major ports than were in places like Oslofjord were beginning to see an ice build-up as well. Isolated reports of ice on the coast of Scotland and northern England were being reported.

::::::::::::::::::::

WEATHER REPORT

Explanation
Below is a weather map showing a major Arctic Oscillation which is currently moving southward over Europe. All references to temperature are discussing air temperatures.

Thick Red Line The actual border of the High Pressure front.
Thin Red Line The extent of severe weather. Everywhere between the Thine Red Line and Thick Red Line is experiencing white-out/blizzard-like conditions.

Dark Blue Line All areas north of this line are either at or below freezing (0 degrees Celsius).
Sky Blue Line All areas north of this line are either at or below -5 degrees Celsius.
Light Blue Line All areas north of this line are either at or below -10 degrees Celsius.
Purple All areas north of this line are either at or below -15 degrees Celsius.
Pink All areas north of this line are either at or below -20 degrees Celsius.
Black All areas north of this line are below -25 degrees Celsius (possible temperatures as low as -55 degrees Celsius).

Incredibly dangerous and bone-chilling weather was slowly crippling the European continent. As the front (Thick Red Line) continued to push south, it pushed with it thick grey clouds filled with precipitation. Freezing Arctic air was pushed south and was actually on top of the mild European air. This was causing extreme convection winds in already blizzard-like conditions. Norway had already been battered and frozen solid. Meanwhile, half of Britain was currently being blanketed with heavy snows. On average, affected areas were easily receiving two feet of snow (61cm). Winds ranged anywhere from 56km/hr to 110km/hr in some extreme cases.


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THE UNITED KINGDOM
It was 7AM in London. The sun wouldn't rise for about another hour, but that wouldn't stop the Ravenmaster from performing his duties. The Ravenmaster was charged with seeing to the well-being of the ravens in the Tower of London. Except for the Queen's Guard on duty, there were few to no people about. He walked with his set of keys to the aviary where the ravens lived. He could smell death in the air as he began to unlock one of the cages. To his horror, two of the ravens were dead. By all accounts, they had appeared to be healthy before and were eating normally. The number of ravens in the Tower of London were now 4, which was two below the legal minimum of 6.

The Met Office was able to helplessly monitor the massive front as it swallowed the Faroe and Shetland islands. Because no major or official government announcements were made about the incoming weather, citizens in the Shetland and Faroe islands were unaware and unprepared for what was coming. Four hours before impact (which was very early in the morning) local radio and television stations began reporting on doppler radar readings which showed that an intense high pressure front was heading directly for the islands. Sadly, most people were asleep during the weather updates which continued well into the normal morning. Faroese and Shetlanders awoke to what some first thought were gunshots. It was actually tennis ball-sized hail impacting their homes. Winds quickly picked up as temperatures began to plummet towards freezing. The islanders on the coast witnessed ten meter high waves slamming into cliffsides and, in some cases, even impacting coastal structures.

After fifteen minutes of intense hail, it stopped for a few brief minutes of calm. Then, the winds dramatically picked up again, and snow began to fall. Even the oldest islanders couldn't remember snow falling this fast or this intense on the islands. The air above the islands was so cold in some cases, there were unconfirmed reports of colonies of seagulls falling from the sky, half or entirely frozen. While the hail wasn't as bad over Britain herself, the snow and winds showed no mercy. Edinburgh and Yorkshire were both already under about two feet of snow and strong winds. Thoroughfares within the cities became impassible within a matter of hours. As people woke up in London, the Isle of Man, and Belfast, they all witnessed a wall of black clouds in the distance approaching them. Reports from Scotland and islands began pouring into British television and radio broadcasts. Many of London and Belfast's early birds decided to rush grocery stores instead of going to work. This problem continued to get worse as the morning carried on.

As temperatures in Britain began to plummet below freezing and snow stuffed streets and blocked railways, power consumption began to steadily increase. All railways and highways connecting rural and urban Scotland (and Scotland and England, for that matter) were now snowed in and impassable. Flights were continuing at Heathrow, but things were starting to look more and more precarious. Unconfirmed reports were coming into the appropriate authorities that high-capacity power lines that ran along the east coast to connect Scotland and England were sagging significantly. Also, dozens of distress calls were being made to the Coast Guard, mostly by fishermen just east of Britain. Distress calls may have reminded someone higher up in the British Coast Guard to contact higher ups in the Royal Navy and remind them to take measures to either deploy or secure Royal Navy warships that were in port.

Reports were also coming in from the British territory of Gotland that ice was encroaching upon the island, and that the northern quarter of it was already surrounded. Soon, shipments to and from the island via sea would be impossible.

The most alarming revelation, however, came from the Celtic Sea. The Cunard Line contacted the Coast Guard, informing them that the RMS Queen Mary 2 was in the middle of the Celtic Sea. Her journey from New York to Southampton was almost complete. She and had over 3,000 souls onboard, but wouldn't make it to port before the high pressure system had passed.
@Jamie


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KINGDOM OF IRELAND
Air temperatures, which were already below average, were now rapidly falling for the first time this winter. While the government had made no serious efforts to study the weather phenomena, it was now knocking at Ireland's front door. In the morning, incredible media reports were coming in from Great Britain of a massive high pressure system that was bringing freezing, violent weather. Pictures from Belfast of a wall of black clouds heading towards Ireland from the Irish Sea spread throughout Ireland, and people began rushing their local grocery stores for supplies. Irish fishermen still in the Irish Sea were soon to find themselves in the middle of a perfect storm. Protestors, alarmed by the reports of severe weather incoming to the island, soon abandoned their picket lines as panic swept the island.
@Dragon


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KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Remarkably, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute was the only government weather service to issue an official warning in regard to the incoming front. Fishermen from other countries may or may not have noticed the total lack of fishing ships flying the Dutch flag in the North Sea as the front approached. The RV Pelagia remained off the coast for some time, gathering weather and sea temperature data. They were able to successfully monitor sea surface temperatures, which continued to fall. Eventually, they noted that waters off the coast of the Netherlands were freezing at their warmest. Dutch scientists at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute were one of the few European scientific organizations that had an advanced understanding of the incoming weather effects to their country. Whereas the British and Irish had a handful of hours and the Norwegians were practically blind-sided, the Dutch knew almost exactly what was going to hit them about 7 hours in advance. Unfortunately, they were going to be hit by the head of the high pressure system, which offered the most severe weather.

The Dutch knew that they were in store for extreme winter weather caused by convection from the high pressure system. They knew that a lot of snow - anywhere from 6 inches to 3 feet - would incase most of their country. They also knew that during the worst part of the storm, they could face softball-sized hail and winds upwards of 100km/hr in some places. As the storm approached, waves ranging from 2-5 meters high were reported in the North Sea, with some rogue waves being 10 meters high. Dutch meteorologists determined that temperatures would quickly drop below zero, and could possibly reach -5 to -15 degrees Celsius. The Dutch Navy also had time to decide how they would secure their warships in port, or if they would deploy them out to sea.

Finally, the Dutch meteorological institute determined that the rapid decrease in temperatures would surely cause problems for infrastructure around the country.
@Dutchy


::::::::::::::::::::


KINGDOM OF NORWAY
The high pressure system was especially brutal on Norway. Initial data from Jan Mayen and Svalbard indicated that the high pressure system would not extended south of Trondheim, and that it would only be 10% as severe as it actually was. This error was only realized once the front impacted Jan Mayen and created the worst weather conditions ever seen on the island. Temperatures around Svalbard were dropping rapidly. Around the entire archipelago, temperatures were at or below -25 degrees Celsius. While temperatures well below 0 weren't uncommon in Svalbard, such a brutal weather event so early in the season was not expected. Incredibly high winds and heavy snows pelted the island, bringing blizzard-like conditions to everyone on the islands. Around midnight, almost everyone on the islands was snowed in while those responsible for keeping the electricity on were forced to work around the clock to ensure nothing went wrong. Civilian reports from Svalbard to the rest of Norway did help spread the word, but it was late at night/early in the morning, so most Norwegians were unaware of what was coming their way.

For at least three hours and twenty-three minutes, Oslo and most of southern Norway lost electricity. Three communications towers in southern Norway were blown over, one falling on a road and killing three people. Norway was in a worse position than Scotland. All major train services and highways were forced to be shut down due to multiple feet of snow blocking the paths. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute determined that temperatures would continue to fall, and that it was critical to keep electricity on throughout the country. The longer power remained off, the more snow would be allowed accumulate on powerlines. The people of Oslo, from those in the Royal Palace to those in the smallest flats, began the process of freezing to death. So far, landlines for telephones were still operational. It was unknown how many people were so far injured or killed, but from emergency calls that were jamming Norwegian emergency lines, it was clear that there was going to be a death toll.


::::::::::::::::::::


THE GERMAN REICH
The German government was also caught off-guard in regard to how severe this front was going to be. However, reports of devastation from Norway (both civilian and government-based scientific) gave the Germans a heads up of a few hours. The front was to impact them in the mid-morning and would bring similar problems that other countries had faced such as: winds over 100km/hr, 2-3 feet of snow, rapidly declining temperatures, and large hail. Power outages and infrastructure damage were also possible, and the German fishing fleet (along with other civilian and military ships that were either at sea or in port) were also under threat. As the German people started to realize how severe this weather event was going to be, some began leaving the cities and heading for their country homes, while others were rushing grocery stores. The government had a very good idea of what the disaster would entail, and now had hours to act before it hit them. There was a general sense of panic throughout Germany as the people were unsure what to do.
@NagandEmerald


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POLAND
The Polish, like the Germans, had several hours to prepare for what they came to understand would be a very serious series of storms. Thanks to civilian and government reports from Norway, and because it would be later in the day when the storm made landfall in Poland, they had a few crucial hours to prepare for the storm. Most Poles in major cities were skipping work as they prepared for what was already being called "The Great Winter of 2012". The Polish government would know that their fishing fleets and other civilian ships at sea would be in danger, as well as military vessels either at sea or in port (they would need to decide whether to deploy these ships, or harden their positions in port). People around the country were found rushing grocery stores and stocking up their homes, while others packed churches and cathedrals to pray for the storm to spare their city or town. The Polish people were generally unsure of what to do, and needed leadership in this trying time.
@Zager


::::::::::::::::::::


SOVIET UNION
Soviet citizens, who were most use to long, cold winters were probably the least concerned of their fellow Europeans. Whether or not the people were worried, however, wasn't going to change the severity of the storm. St. Petersburg was the first major Soviet city to be hit by the front. Intense hail, softball sized or possibly even larger, pelted the city for almost half an hour. Nearly 100 car accidents were caused as a result of this as some pedestrians out in the public were also hit. Nine people were reportedly killed by ice that was falling from the sky. Shortly after the hail came, winds picked up in a very powerful and dramatic fashion. Ships were brushed aside as gusts of over 110km/hr forced ships off course, causing some to bump into each other, and two container ships actually beached on Gogland Island. Once the weather started to get severe, Soviet citizens started either sheltering in place or trying to return home despite the near white-out conditions. Reports from St. Petersburg quickly made their way to Moscow and other Russian cities. Civilians were starting to enter a stage of panic, and needed leadership and/or calming, as well as a plan of what to do. Soviet officials were sure that power failures were plausible under worse-case conditions.
@Llane

 

[Dragon]

Government offices in Dublin continued to flood with more disturbing reports of incoming winter weather. The streets previously pack full of life now deadened as temperatures fell below average. No go zones werw dismantled and members of the Dublin Metropolitan Police were ordered back to their barracks. Schools throughout Ireland were told to close their doors until the weather returned to normal.

Members of Labour and Sein Fein released several statements condemning the current administrations reckless deployment of armed policemen and apparent lack of consideration for the coming storm.

Those at sea were advised to return to their ports of origin with the promise of future subsidies for the fishing industry if they complied.

This might be the first in a nail of coffins for the new governmennt but the Irish people have yet to know if this is true or not.

 

[Zager]

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, headed by none other than Andrzej Lepper, would announce a frost warning to the farmers and citizens of Poland. Crops would be pulled from their respective areas and transported to various greenhouses made to keep the crops safe from the dangerous effects of crop frost. Polish F-16s and other aircraft were recalled to Krakow, a region assumed to be safe from the effects of the storm.

---

Bishop Superior Wiktor Wysoczański, the current Minister of Religious Affairs, has called upon churches located south of the projected storm path to evacuate any churchgoers currently in the northern area. The few corvettes Poland had out performing coastal patrols in the Baltic were recalled to the island city of Hel, where extensive preparations were made to lessen the impact on the port and ship. The Polish Civilian Watch Detachment has organized volunteer groups to assist with the evacuation of the elderly, disabled, and any otherwise in danger people. Children, on the other hand, were ecstatic. Surely there would be a few snow days after this.

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