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Wednesday April 5, 2006, name day of Vince


Gyertyán vs. Urbán: A Duel Without Bloodshed
By Árpád V. Tóth | April 5, 2006 20:25

Last night, the much-anticipated showdown between Ferenc Gyertyán and Viktor Urbán took place, hosted by Hungarian Television. The two moderators, Balázs Rába and Gergely Sümegi, did as decent a job as one can in this genre. Their role was to be boring non-entities, and in that, they succeeded admirably. The two candidates for prime minister stood at their respective podiums, said their respective lines, and largely stuck to their pre-approved scripts. Anyone hoping for fireworks had to make do with the occasional spark – a carefully placed jab here, an exasperated sigh there. But overall, this was less gladiator duel, more polite fencing match.

Hungarian Television

Gyertyán, the Unexpected Statesman​

Gyertyán’s big gamble was on tone. The man once hailed as the left’s street fighter, the counterweight to Urbán’s endless attacks, decided to play it cool. No aggressive finger-wagging, no operatic outrage, just a steady, measured performance full of stats and reasonable-sounding explanations. He wanted to be seen as the rational, competent incumbent.

This, of course, would have been more surprising if we hadn’t been hearing variations of this same speech for the past four years. Gyertyán reassured us that the economy was stable (despite the debt figures), that wages had increased (despite inflation), and that life, generally speaking, had improved. “In 2002, a kilogram of bread cost 26 minutes of work; today, it’s 21,” he noted, apparently under the impression that bread prices would be the deciding factor of this election.

For those who remember the days of Péter Meggyess, his predecessor and human sleep aid, this was supposed to be where Gyertyán shined. Back in 2004, he was the firebrand, the man who could finally go toe-to-toe with Urbán. And yet, when the moment came, he chose to keep the gloves on. Will voters appreciate this newfound maturity, or were they expecting more of the fighter they were promised? That’s the big question.

Urbán Tries a New Trick: Restraint​

On the other side of the ring, Urbán also surprised – by keeping his volume at a reasonable level. The man known for his high-energy, high-decibel performances actually seemed... restrained. Perhaps he decided that after eight years of painting the country’s collapse in increasingly apocalyptic tones, it was time for a change of pace.

Naturally, he still had his grievances: too much debt, too many taxes, not enough support for the middle class. His flagship promise – raising the minimum wage to 100,000 forints – was delivered with all the expected sincerity. But beyond that, he added an interesting new proposal: the establishment of a Budapest Development Ministry to manage infrastructure in the capital. A fascinating pivot, considering IDESZ, posturing as the party of villages and smalltowns, has spent the past decade treating Budapest like an overgrown nuisance in need of discipline. Big Cities to them used to be too liberal, too cosmopolitan, too Jewi… sorry, ‘other.’ But election time is all about broadening horizons, and what better way to court urban voters than with a shiny new ministry.

Of course, no Urbán performance would be complete without a few folksy nuggets of wisdom. Last night’s winner: “You can’t fatten a pig on Christmas Eve.” A folksy truism that – much like Urbán himself – sounds traditional but somehow isn’t actually a real thing.

Polished, Practiced, Predictable​

Stanislaw Lem had this idea: ‘phantomatics.’ A machine that builds a fake reality so perfect, you’d never know you’re in it. Last night’s debate felt like a test run. Gyertyán’s Hungary is thriving. Urbán’s Hungary is in ruins. Two seamless simulations, both delivered with confidence. Neither quite matching the world outside.

The exchanges between the two were pointed but never truly heated. Gyertyán pushed back against the idea that government debt was a disaster; Urbán accused Gyertyán of wasting borrowed billions. The prime minister mocked his opponent’s fearmongering: “Scaring people is easy – you just jump out from a dark corner.” Urbán, in turn, offered a classic deadpan response: “There’s no point in coming together just to talk nonsense.”

For all their careful messaging, both men also managed to remind us of their most grating qualities. Gyertyán still speaks like someone who has been meticulously coached by a theatre troupe, every gesture and intonation calibrated for maximum ‘naturalness.’ Urbán, meanwhile, continues his habit of sprinkling his speech with rustic wisdom, as if he just emerged from a thatched-roof farmhouse instead of a career in politics.

Who Won?​

That depends on what you were hoping for. If you wanted a reasoned, civil debate, congratulations. If you wanted a knockout punch, sorry to disappoint.

Gyertyán proved he can stay composed, which will either reassure voters or bore them to death. Urbán, meanwhile, kept his usual fire in check, which might win over some moderates but could leave his base wondering where their champion went.

And so the campaign rolls on. The four-way debate is up next, promising a more chaotic, less disciplined spectacle. Ivola Dávidh (MDSZ) and Gábor Kuntse (SZDF) will join Gyertyán and Urbán on stage in the coming days. Maybe we’ll finally get some real drama there. Or maybe, just maybe, we’ll get more of the same well-rehearsed, endlessly familiar performance.

 

[Szalakóta]

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Thursday April 6, 2006, name day of Bíborka and Vilmos


Four Politicians Walk Onto a Stage…
By Péter Úhy, April 6, 2006 21:43

...two of them pretending they don’t hate each other, one pretending to be above it all, and one reminding everyone that she’s been right this whole time. It was the second major debate of the campaign, hosted by Hungarian Television and moderated by Csaba Azura and Zoltán Felföldy. In theory, this is where ideas clash, visions for the country emerge, and voters get clarity. In practice, it was more of a careful dance—except for Ivolya Dávid, who came to set the floor on fire.

Hungarian Television

Economy: Empty Pockets, Big Promises

Viktor Urbán (IDESZ) opened with his well-rehearsed warning: the country is heading for disaster, debt is out of control, and Gyertyán’s government is spending like there’s no tomorrow. He painted a picture of a bankrupt state, burdened by reckless social policies and a ballooning deficit.

Ferenc Gyertyán (MSZDP), in stark contrast to his usual combative style, didn’t take the bait. He wasn’t here to argue—he was here to reassure. “Yes, there are challenges, but let’s not catastrophize. Hungary is growing, wages are increasing, and investment is coming in,” he said, in a calm, almost managerial tone. He even nodded along at points, as if to say, I hear you, Viktor. You’re just wrong.

Gábor Kuntse (SZDF) played his usual role: the liberal dissenter pointing out that neither side was being honest. “You’re arguing over how to spend money we don’t have,” he said, shaking his head. “And you both know it.” Then, after a brief pause: “But don’t worry, after the election, neither of you will remember saying any of this.”

And then there was Ivolya Dávid (MDSZ), who was not here to smile and nod. “This entire debate is built on a lie,” she said. “IDESZ and MSZDP are both making promises they can’t pay for, and everyone here knows it.” She called out both Urbán and Gyertyán for irresponsible populism—Gyertyán for excessive social spending, Urbán for his own grand pledges of tax cuts and handouts. “This isn’t left versus right. It’s reality versus fiction.”

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Populism: Who Buys It, Who Pays For It?

Urbán and Gyertyán kept circling each other on fiscal policy. Urbán accused the government of reckless overspending, while Gyertyán insisted that investing in people was a necessity, not a luxury.

Dávid, unimpressed, cut in. “The two of you are arguing about how to spend money we don’t have. That’s the real problem,” she said. “Neither of you want to tell voters the truth: Hungary can’t afford these promises.” She pushed for independent oversight of government finances, a dedicated anti-corruption office, and stricter spending rules—because, as she put it, “without those, this conversation will just repeat itself in four years.”

Kuntse, sipping water, smiled. “Four? That’s optimistic.”

The Final Stretch​

As the debate wrapped up, Gyertyán maintained his carefully measured calm—or at least, he tried. By the end, it was clear how much effort it took. Urbán handed him openings on a silver platter, the kind of lines that, on any other night, would have triggered an immediate counterattack. But Gyertyán bit his tongue, nodded, stayed above it all. Statesmanlike, or just extremely self-disciplined?

It was also striking how similar this dynamic was to the previous night’s one-on-one debate. Urbán and Gyertyán both chose restraint—meaning it was up to the two smaller parties to inject some juice into the proceedings. Dávid gladly obliged, while Kuntse, as always, played the amused spectator.

Urbán, for his part, stuck to his message of crisis and catastrophe. Kuntse made a few remarks worthy of a few laughs, though he likely didn’t change anyone’s mind. And Dávid, while unlikely to win, made sure everyone knew that the two big parties were running the country on a buy-now-pay-later scheme.

As for Gyertyán’s strategy—maybe it was meant to win Urbán’s heart. But gratitude isn’t really a political category.

 

[Szalakóta]

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Sunday April 9, 2006, name day of Erhard


2006 Election, First Round - A Close Contest with Surprises
By Hundex Staff, April 9, 2006 23:49

The first round of the 2006 parliamentary elections delivered a remarkably close contest between the governing MSZDP and the opposition IDESZ, while smaller parties outperformed expectations. Of the National Assembly's 386 seats, 176 single-member seats and 146 seats from county-level party lists were up for grab in this round. Though MSZDP secured a narrow lead in the popular vote, both major parties saw their momentum checked, likely due to their leaders’ unusually restrained campaign performances. Meanwhile, SZDF and MDSZ outperformed pre-election polls, breathing new life into Hungary’s multi-party system. In the second round, to be held in two weeks on April 23, the Social Democrats are somewhat better positioned to win, but IDESZ still has a narrowish but not entirely unrealistic pathway to victory.

A Tight Race at the Top​

According to official results from the first round, announced by the National Electoral Committee (OVB) MSZDP received 42.21% of the national party-list vote, narrowly ahead of IDESZ, which secured 41.53%. Despite MSZDP’s small lead, the distribution of county-list seats was nearly even, with MSZDP winning 70 and IDESZ 68. In terms of single-member constituencies, IDESZ won 25 outright, while MSZDP claimed 24, a reflection of IDESZ’s broader rural support. The remaining districts will head to a second round, with over 60 constituencies currently favoring MSZDP. However, the outcome remains uncertain, especially given how tightly contested many of these races are.

SZDF and MDSZ Exceed Expectations​

While the two major parties maintained their dominance, the real story of the night was the better-than-expected performance of SZDF and MDSZ. SZDF secured 7.00% of the national party-list vote, surpassing its 2002 result of 5.57% and ensuring another term in Parliament. This result is notable given pre-election fears that MSZDP’s socially liberal image under Ferenc Gyertyán could draw votes away from SZDF, particularly in Budapest. However, Gyertyán’s unusually measured campaign may have helped SZDF retain liberal voters in the capital, strengthening its foothold among urban progressives.

Meanwhile, MDSZ defied expectations by crossing the parliamentary threshold with 6.04%, despite predictions a week ago that it might fall short. The decisive factor appears to have been Ivolya Dávid’s strong debate performance, which contrasted with Gyertyán and Urbán’s more subdued approaches. Although MDSZ remains disadvantaged by Hungary’s regional list system, which favors larger parties, its success suggests that center-right voters did not feel compelled to consolidate behind IDESZ as they did in past elections.

Geographical Trends: MSZDP Gains, IDESZ Holds Rural Strongholds​

As expected, MSZDP performed strongly in Budapest and major urban centers such as Miskolc, Pécs, Szeged, and Nyíregyháza, while also making significant inroads into rural districts across Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, Hajdú-Bihar, Békés, and Baranya. Nevertheless, IDESZ held firm in traditional strongholds such as Bács-Kiskun, Győr-Moson-Sopron, and Vas counties. In the well-off suburbs of Pest County, surrounding Budapest, MSZDP and IDESZ are nearly evenly matched.

Looking Ahead: The Second Round​

While MSZDP currently holds an edge, the second round will determine the final balance of power. MSZDP leads in over 60 undecided constituencies, and if SZDF voters rally behind them, they could claim another 5 to 10 seats. IDESZ, meanwhile, is positioned to secure 35-40 additional districts, with the possibility of reaching 45 if MDSZ supporters align with them. However, this remains an open question, as MDSZ voters are far from guaranteed to join Urbán’s bloc.

Adding further uncertainty, roughly a dozen races remain within a one-percent margin, with both MSZDP and IDESZ fighting for control. For MSZDP, a 50-50 split in these districts would likely be sufficient for victory. IDESZ, on the other hand, faces a more difficult path: it must win a majority of these swing districts to remain competitive.

The Compensation List Factor​

The system of compensation lists, which redistributes votes from single-member districts, could provide a last-minute boost for IDESZ—but it is unlikely to fully offset MSZDP’s current lead. SZDF and MDSZ will also gain some additional seats, though likely not enough to drastically alter their overall parliamentary weight.

The Nutshell Summary: A Likely Edge for MSZDP, But Nothing is Certain​

At this stage, MSZDP appears better positioned to emerge victorious, but with the second round ahead, IDESZ remains within striking distance. The final outcome will depend on how second-round voters align, particularly in the swing districts and among supporters of MDSZ. The next two weeks will be decisive in determining whether Hungary continues under MSZDP leadership or if Urbán’s IDESZ can mount a late comeback.

Stay tuned for further coverage on Hundex.hu.