National Security Council: #003

[Bruno]

National Security Council Meeting – Portugal’s Stance on the Syrian Conflict - Secret and Classified​

Date: January 2006
Location: Palacio de Belém, Lisbon
Attendees:

• President Pedro da Gama
• Vice President Rui Tavares
• Secretary of State Luís Amado
• Secretary of Defense Augusto Santos Silva
• Secretary of Home Affairs Rui Pereira
• Secretary of Finance Carlos Teixeira dos Santos
• Secretary of Economy and Sea Affairs Vieira da Silva
• General Luís Valença Pinto, Chief of the General Staff

The heavy wooden doors of the Palácio de Belém’s main conference room shut with a dull thud, sealing the National Security Council inside. At the head of the table, President Pedro da Gama leaned back in his chair, eyes scanning the gathered officials, the situation in Syria was escalating fast, and Portugal needed to decide on its stance.

"Alright, let’s get straight to it," Da Gama said, tapping his fingers against the table and his paperwork. "Syria is breaking apart. France has thrown its weight behind ILAL, recognizing them as the legitimate government and preparing military intervention. The Russians are playing a dangerous game, still holding onto their bases and waging a shadow war against both ILAL and IRGL factions. Thailand, meanwhile, is openly hostile and is looking for a reason to intervene."

He sighed, rubbing his temple. "Portugal cannot afford to be idle. We must decide where we stand, how we position ourselves, and what we aim to gain from this conflict."

He turned to Luís Amado, Portugal’s top diplomat. "Luís, walk us through the diplomatic situation."

Amado adjusted his tie, clearing his throat before speaking.

"Right now, we are facing two major diplomatic dilemmas," he began. "First, our growing relationship with France. They have recognized ILAL and are committing military resources to stabilize them. Given our recent military-industrial agreements, they expect Portugal to at least align with their stance. If we refuse or hesitate, it might weaken our position in Paris. However, if we fully commit, we could find ourselves entangled in a long and costly conflict with no clear exit strategy. Second, the broader geopolitical risks. The United States and the United Kingdom has not yet taken a definitive position, but they must be closely monitoring the situation. If they perceive ILAL as unstable or if France’s intervention becomes too aggressive, Washington may distance itself from the operation. That could put us in a difficult position, we do not want to alienate the Americans, but we also cannot afford to damage our relationship with France."

"On Thailand," Amado continued, his expression darkening, "they are clearly looking for an excuse to involve themselves militarily. Their leadership sees ILAL’s Islamist roots as an existential threat to their ideological system. If they intervene, it could lead to a multi-front war, dragging in regional actors and turning Syria into another Cold War-style battlefield. My recommendation is a balanced approach. We acknowledge ILAL as the de facto authority in Damascus but refrain from full recognition until there is a more structured transition process. We publicly support France’s stabilization efforts but limit our commitment to non-military contributions—logistics, intelligence-sharing, humanitarian aid. This keeps us aligned with Paris while giving us flexibility in case the situation worsens."

Santos Silva nodded at Amado’s words before taking the floor.

"From a military standpoint, Portugal has no direct strategic interest in intervening in Syria," he stated plainly. "We do not have expeditionary forces positioned in the region, and sending troops would be logistically complex and politically unpopular."

General Luís Valença Pinto leaned forward, interjecting. "However, there are ways we can assist indirectly. If we support them in Syria, even in a limited capacity..."

Santos Silva tapped a folder in front of him. "The best way for Portugal to contribute is through logistics, intelligence-sharing, and maritime security. And we could deploy naval assets to assist with Mediterranean stability, ensuring arms shipments don’t fall into the wrong hands." He paused. "The real concern is Russia. Their forces are still in Syria, holding onto key bases and running covert operations. They haven’t openly clashed with France yet, but if that happens, it could force Portugal into a difficult position. We need to ensure that any support we offer does not make us a direct target."

Rui Pereira, leaned forward. "Even if Portugal isn’t directly involved in the fighting, we will feel the consequences," he warned. "The first and most immediate risk is migration. If Syria fully collapses, we could see an influx of refugees. Portugal is not the primary destination for most asylum seekers but we must prepare for secondary migration effects."

"The second issue is terrorism. If extremist factions gain strength in Syria, Europe will inevitably face attacks. Portugal has not been a primary target for jihadist groups, but that doesn’t mean we are immune. We need to enhance intelligence-sharing with France and Spain to monitor radicalization risks. We should also consider stricter border controls, at least temporarily."

"Lastly," he added, "we must be cautious about allowing Syrian nationals into Portugal without thorough vetting. We should prioritize accepting skilled workers, doctors, engineers, professionals, rather than opening the door to unvetted migration."

Carlos Teixeira dos Santos, spoke next.

"There is no point in taking risks without a reward," he said bluntly. "France wants us on board? Good. Then let’s make sure we benefit from it. If we support their intervention in Syria, we should push for expanded military-industrial cooperation. That means more access to advanced weapon systems, better licensing terms for domestic production, and extended payment plans."

Vieira da Silva nodded. "Beyond defense, Syria will need reconstruction once the dust settles. If we position ourselves correctly, Portuguese firms could win contracts in infrastructure, energy, and maritime logistics. We need to start negotiations now to secure those opportunities before other European powers dominate the market."

"That said," he cautioned, "we must also ensure that our economy is insulated from instability. Syria itself is not a major trading partner, but the wider Middle East is. If this conflict spreads, energy prices could spike. We need contingency plans to prevent disruptions in our energy supply."

Tavares leaned forward, summarizing the discussion and intreluding with his mild temper.

"Portugal must approach this crisis with three key objectives in mind: diplomacy, security, and economic gain. Diplomatically, we acknowledge ILAL’s de facto control but do not fully recognize them yet. We push for an internationally mediated transition to maintain flexibility. We align with France but work behind the scenes to prevent Thai interference. Militarily, we provide indirect support—logistics, intelligence-sharing, and maritime security, but we do not engage in combat and Economically, we use our involvement to negotiate better defense agreements with France and position Portuguese firms for reconstruction contracts. We also manage migration carefully to prevent security risks while benefiting from skilled labor."

Da Gama nodded, tapping the table.

"This is the path we take. Luís, prepare a diplomatic statement that acknowledges ILAL’s control while emphasizing the need for a stable transition. Keep France happy, but leave us an exit strategy."

"Augusto, coordinate with France on logistics and intelligence-sharing. No direct combat involvement."

"Rui Pereira, tighten security protocols. Monitor migration and enhance counterterrorism efforts."

"Carlos and Vieira, secure economic deals with France and lay the groundwork for Portuguese involvement in Syria’s reconstruction."

He looked around the room. "Let’s be clear: we are not just bystanders in this conflict. We will ensure that Portugal gains from this, without being dragged into unnecessary risks. Let’s move."

With that, the meeting concluded, and Portugal’s strategy on Syria was set in motion.