Operation Return Lotus

[ManBear]

Operation Return Lotus​

Top Secret and Encrypted​

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Background:​

In the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of Thailand, the nation is in turmoil. The attempted assassination has fueled a political and military crisis, resulting in public unrest, civil disturbances, and potential military uprisings. Intelligence reports suggest the situation is rapidly evolving, with the possibility of a full-scale military coup. Poland, as an emerging global power, has an interest in maintaining stability in Southeast Asia while gathering crucial intelligence regarding the current Thai government's ability to control its military and civilian unrest.

Operation Return Lotus is designed to infiltrate Thailand by embedding operatives as expats returning home, leveraging their cover identities to blend in seamlessly with local society. The operation's primary objective is to gather intelligence on the political situation, military readiness, and public sentiment in Thailand in the wake of the attempted assassination and the rising instability.

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Objectives:​

1. Infiltration:
   • Primary Goal: Insert a team of Polish Special Forces and POSP agents into Thailand, posing as expats returning home for various professional and personal reasons.
   • Method: Utilize forged and altered Thai passports to gain entry into Thailand undetected, ensuring smooth passage through customs and immigration.
   • Cover Identities: Agents will assume various roles, including business owners, humanitarian workers, and consultants in agriculture, technology, and academia.
2. Political Intelligence Collection:
   • Primary Goal: Infiltrate key political and military circles to gather information on the state of the Thai government and military in the wake of the assassination attempt.
   • Target Areas:
     • Meetings with political figures and business elites.
     • Surveillance of military installations and government buildings.
     • Monitoring of any signs of military coups or internal divisions within the ruling factions.
   • Key Information: Military response to the assassination, any potential shifts in power, and signs of foreign influence in Thai politics.
3. Military Assessment:
   • Primary Goal: Assess the readiness and stability of the Thai military, its willingness to act in defense of the current government or its potential allegiance to opposing factions.
   • Target Areas:
     • Thai military units and garrisons, especially along the border regions.
     • Evaluation of military morale and movement patterns.
     • Infiltrate local networks and military businesses to collect intelligence.
   • Key Information: Military leadership and readiness, potential risks of military rebellion, and internal military fractures.
4. Civilian Sentiment Monitoring:
   • Primary Goal: Assess public sentiment regarding the Thai government and military through social channels, NGOs, and local gatherings.
   • Target Areas:
     • Social media monitoring and local protests.
     • Interviews and interactions with locals in social settings (cafes, markets, universities).
     • Infiltrating grassroots movements and opposition groups.
   • Key Information: Public dissatisfaction with the government, potential for widespread civil unrest, and local support for the military or opposition.
5. Counterintelligence and Operational Security:
   • Primary Goal: Ensure the security of the operation and prevent exposure to Thai intelligence services.
   • Target Areas:
     • Establish safe houses and secure communication channels.
     • Monitor and disrupt any efforts by local intelligence services to identify foreign operatives.
   • Key Information: Ensure continuous cover and minimize the risk of compromise during the operation.​

Execution Plan:

1. Stage 1: Insertion

• Objective: Deploy agents via international flights to Suvarnabhumi Airport, Thailand’s primary airport, under their cover identities as returning expats.​
• Method: Disperse the team across multiple points of entry to avoid drawing attention. Immigration and customs will be bypassed using altered or forged Thai passports, avoiding detection.​
• Timeline: Arrival and entry into Thailand within the next 72 hours.​

1. Stage 2: Establishing Presence
   • Objective: After entry, agents will relocate to pre-determined safe houses in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Pattaya. They will blend into the local population and begin gathering intelligence through covert means.
   • Method: Engage in business or humanitarian operations to maintain cover. All communications will be encrypted, and face-to-face meetings will be avoided unless necessary.
   • Timeline: Initial infiltration and contact with local sources within the first two weeks.
2. Stage 3: Intelligence Collection
   • Objective: Political and military intelligence collection will be the priority, supplemented by monitoring civilian unrest.
   • Method: Establish contacts within Thai political and military circles, attend political events under the guise of expat business owners, and conduct surveillance of military movements.
   • Timeline: Ongoing collection of intelligence. Reports will be sent back to POSP headquarters every 72 hours for evaluation.
3. Stage 4: Exfiltration and Reporting
   • Objective: Once sufficient intelligence has been gathered, the team will exfiltrate Thailand and return to Poland.
   • Method: Extraction will be conducted discreetly, using pre-established routes and transportation methods. Communications will be sanitized before departure.
   • Timeline: Estimated extraction window of 3–4 months, depending on the intelligence collection.
4. Rules of Engagement:
   • Discretion is Key: Maintain cover at all times. Engaging in public discourse about politics or military matters is prohibited.
   • Minimize Interaction with Local Authorities: If approached by Thai law enforcement or military, agents will remain neutral and attempt to avoid further investigation.
   • In Case of Compromise: If an agent’s cover is blown, they must immediately abort the mission and seek extraction, following POSP’s emergency protocol.
5. Communication Protocols:
   • Secure Channels: All communications will be conducted via encrypted channels. Radio silence will be observed unless urgent contact is required. Main form of communication will be utilized on BezpiecznaWiadość; the Polish encrypted messaging service
   • Backup System: In the event of communication failure, a secondary, pre-arranged dead drop method on the dark web will be used for updates.
6. Mission Timeline:
   • Preparation and Insertion: 3–7 days
   • Intelligence Collection: Ongoing, with key milestones after 1 month, 2 months, and 3 months
   • Exfiltration: Estimated 3–4 months from mission initiation
7. Conclusion:Operation Return Lotus represents a critical mission in assessing the ongoing political instability and military readiness in Thailand. The operation is crucial for Poland’s growing influence in Southeast Asia, as well as understanding the potential shifts in power that may impact global stability. The team must remain undetected, gather actionable intelligence, and report back to the Ministry of National Defense and POSP to inform future strategic decisions.

Personnel:

4 Members of Formoza on Insertion Teams
4 Members of POSP on Insertion Teams
25 Members of POSP for intelligence monitoring