Red Crescent, Iron Will: Strategic Horizons

[Jay]

​

Naval Headquarters, Ankara
September 11th 2006
Admiral Adnan Özbal, Chief of Naval Operations, sat at the head of the long steel table, papers folded neatly in front of him. The invasion had changed everything. While Özbal predicted the Turks would lose the war, he watched as political officers and fascists took the helm of governance and made decisions without consulting the armed forces.

Özbal and other high-ranking officers helplessly watched as the Turkish military was handed defeat after defeat, and thousands died in the coalition strikes against the country. Then, he vowed to himself, he would never watch another defeat at such a scale for the Turkish armed forces.

To his right sat Vice Admiral Gökçen Fırat, commander of the Aegean and Mediterranean fleets. Across from her, Rear Admiral İsmail Güldoğan, on loan from General Staff Headquarters, drummed his fingers absently on a sealed operations file. Lower officers from communications, doctrine, and intelligence sat between them, with some listening as others took notes.

When Özbal finally spoke, it was rather somber. “I understand that in recent weeks, discussions at the General Staff have turned into a blame game. However, I will be frank when I say that we failed. Let’s not waste time pretending otherwise.”

A few heads shifted uncomfortably. No one challenged him. It was an uncomfortable truth that the regular Turkish armed forces had proved poorly and that the regime had stripped them of their leadership, both commissioned and non-commissioned, in favor of political considerations.

“We had a fleet in the Black Sea that couldn’t stop the Russians from landing within striking distance of Zonguldak. We had a fleet in the Aegean that couldn’t stop a foreign task force from sailing straight through our territorial waters and landing troops on Turkish soil. American, British, and Australian ships outmaneuvered us not because they had better ships, though they did, but because they had better people. Better command decisions. We were out-thought.”

He paused, letting the silence hang as he looked at the officers around them. “So, we’re done chasing parity. We're done playing fleet games we can't afford. From today forward, doctrine changes.”

Vice Admiral Fırat raised her eyes. “Sir, with respect… are you saying we abandon our TFX project and focus on heavy ships?”

Admiral Özbal leaned forward. “I'm saying we stop pretending that billion-dollar hulls give us power. We fielded six modern frigates, dozens of Korean and Chinese destroyers, and support boats in the Aegean. They were paralyzed by a coordinated strike group with superior air coverage and information warfare. Our sailors fought hard. They died with honor. But they died for a doctrine that belongs in a NATO textbook from 1983. So, our focus will shift to match the doctrine of modern warfare.”

He turned to Rear Admiral Güldoğan. “The General Staff wants a force that can win. Not one that looks impressive on parade. From this moment on, our focus is on quality personnel, high-tempo training, and a shift in procurement to low-cost, survivable platforms. That means unmanned vessels. Drones. Land-based anti-ship missiles from fixed and mobile positions. Anything that kills ships at range and survives the first hour of war.”

Rear Admiral Güldoğan gave a short nod. He didn’t argue.

Vice Admiral Fırat exhaled. “So we cede the sea to them?”

“No,” Özbal said, coldly. “We deny them the sea. That’s a different kind of power.” He paused before continuing. “We’ll scale back in the Black Sea. I’ll speak to Vice Admiral Mustafa Zeki Uğurlu and fleet command at Gölcük next week. He knows he’s in a holding role now, containment, surveillance, and attrition will be our model." He said, pointing to a map of the Black Sea.

"For the Black Sea the goal is to cripple the Russian Fleet at Sevastopol through attrition. The control of the Bosphorus gives us a significant advantage to force the Russians into a pitched battle on our terms." He placed his fingers over the Russian bases in the Black Sea. "The war showed that if the Russians take the initiative, they can sail through the straits without any opposition. We must deny them freedom of movement and then dwindle their numbers through low-cost platforms. If we are unable to deny them the freedom of movement, then their control over the Black Sea means that they can maneuver freely and support amphibious operations.

That does not change my outlook that the future is here.” He tapped the map of the Aegean, where the maze of islands and straits looked like a snare laid in stone. “This is the front. The Aegean is where we bleed, or where we rebuild. Our ability to project power and control the Aegean and Mediterranean is crucial.”

Captain Emre Yılmaz, from naval intelligence, spoke up hesitantly. “Sir, then the exercise?”

Admiral Özbal nodded. “The exercise will reflect the new reality. No large-scale ship-to-ship engagements. No large-scale amphibious assaults. Instead, we will focus on hunter-killer capabilities and, importantly to excel in the information and electronic warfare space. Integrating Kamikaze UAVs and Mobile missile launchers hidden along the coast. Turning the Aegean into an area of sea denial. The enemy will not find a fleet to fight. We’ll force them to split up their forces and then overwhelm their defensive capabilities while targeting their electronic systems.

Vice Admiral Fırat folded her arms, her voice low. “You’ll catch hell from the war college for this shift.”

“I already have,” Özbal said with a bitter half-smile. “They called me 'cavalier'. Said I was turning the Turkish Navy into a rabble of pirates with loitering munitions.”

He looked around the room. “But pirates don’t lose their homeland. We won't be caught assembling warships like lego sets while the enemy lands on our beaches. We’ll be waiting in the rocks. The Aegean Fleet needs to be mobile and integrate its operations across multi-branch capabilities."

Finally, Vice Admiral Fırat nodded. “It is true. The Navy died in the last war. Let’s hope what we build next knows how to kill.”

Rear Admiral Güldoğan interjected. “From the General Staff’s perspective, this is a symptom of a larger issue, and I believe the CNO alluded to it earlier, inter-service interoperability and command structure rigidity. Our procedures for joint operations between the Navy, Air Force, and Marines need streamlining. The bureaucracy is slowing down response times.”

Admiral Özbal nodded. “Precisely. The core competence of admiralty and seafaring must be honed in on. However, I agree with you both. I believe that this exercise must focus on flexibility and rapid decision-making at the operational level. We need to test our commanders’ ability to act independently. We need to train them to act within a unified strategic framework and leverage those assets.”

Rear Admiral Güldoğan tapped his pen on the table. “What the General Staff thinks is helpful is that embedding liaison officers within each branch’s command centers will help to facilitate real-time information flow. Additionally, adopting a modular command structure that can reconfigure based on threat type, be it aerial, naval, or amphibious, will improve responsiveness.”

He looked at the map. “The main challenge we faced in the war was that our forces were spread out, with the bulk of our navy focused here.” He said, pointing to Aksaz. ”Where our navy tried to force a first strike without any understanding of the targets or the objective.” He drew lines on the plastic overlay circling RAF Akrotiri, Israel, and Southern Russia. “This lack of strategic understanding meant that we operated outside the supporting capabilities of the air force, airborne electronic capabilities, or that our forces could coordinate counterattacks on land.

Vice Admiral Fırat added, “We must also enhance our electronic warfare capabilities. During the last conflict, our communications and radar systems were overwhelmed or deceived by electronic countermeasures.” Captain Emre Yılmaz, sitting next to Vice Admiral Fırat, turned to Admiral Özbal and asked, “Admiral, permission to speak?”

“Go ahead, Captain Emre Yılmaz,” Admiral Özbal said, looking at her.

“A critical issue that the fleet faced was not understanding its targets and not integrating geospatial and other intelligence capabilities to provide a full picture. The navy faced a combined fleet of tens of warships across multiple nations. That required significant coordination, and we failed to exploit those gaps. I do agree, we need to invest in assets that will enhance our intelligence gathering capabilities, but also disruption capabilities.

Vice Admiral Fırat leaned forward. “I agree, Captain Yılmaz. The war showed us the serious restraints on our abilities. I do not believe any of us are defending what the regime did…but…we failed to defend our homeland when push came to shove. I think we do need to focus on what went wrong and how to improve it. I hope this exercise will allow us to figure that out and make changes to be prepared.”

Admiral Özbal sat in silence for a moment, his fingers interlaced as his gaze locked on the map. Then he looked up at Vice Admiral Fırat. “Vice Admiral,” he said, “you’ll lead the drafting of the new exercise plan. I trust that in your care."

Vice Admiral Fırat nodded slowly. “Understood, sir.” Her aide took down the notes on his notepad.

“I want every scenario to stress independent operational initiative. No micromanagement from Ankara. If a ship commander sees a threat, I want them trained to act.”

Özbal turned to Rear Admiral Güldoğan. “And I want that modular command structure drawn up and tested in the exercise. Embedded liaisons, inter-branch tasking, mobile C2 units...the works.”

“Yes sir,” Güldoğan replied. “I'll have a preliminary framework to your office within 48 hours.”

Özbal then stood up, the steel legs of his chair screeching faintly against the tile floor. He stepped toward the map as he stepped back from the table. “And one more thing. No PowerPoint. I want sand tables, live rehearsals, and real drills. No simulated victory conditions. If the enemy lands, they land. If we lose a battalion, we lose it. No resets.”

He looked around the room. “This exercise isn’t about public morale or political optics. This is about building a navy that doesn't hope it can defend the homeland, it knows it can. Because the next time someone tests us, I don’t want to see a fleet dying in confusion. I don't want to be the one signing a surrender onboard a battleship. I want them to go home with their fleets limping and their sailors teething."

He paused before saying. “Dismissed.”

Chairs were pushed back, papers gathered, and officers began to file out quietly. Vice Admiral Fırat lingered for a moment, as she casted a glance toward the head of the table, then turned to follow the others. Admiral Özbal remained behind, hands resting on the edge of the table, staring at the map yet again as he wondered whether he had made the right move to support the Young Turks in their plot. The war had taught him one thing: when ideologues take power, the price is always paid in the blood of soldiers and the security of the nation. He exhaled quietly, gathered his cap and dispatch case, and stepped out into the waiting dusk. His helicopter waited on the landing pad, blades already spinning, ready to lift him to Gölcük. There was still much to rebuild. And less time than ever.

 

[Jay]

Gölcük Naval Base
October 3rd, 2006

Vice Admiral Mustafa Zeki Uğurlu stood on the sea-sprayed balcony overlooking the harbor where the hulls of FREMMs glinted beneath the grey morning sky. Across the courtyard, the flags of the fleet rustled in a stiff northeasterly breeze, and below, the clustered forms of sailors drilling signaled the slow return of order. The war had crippled the Turkish Navy. Rebuilding it now meant more than replacing ships. It meant rethinking everything.

He heard the heavy boots approach before he turned. Admiral Adnan Özbal, Chief of Naval Operations, stepped onto the balcony, coat folded across his arm. Vice Admiral Uğurlu raised his hand in salute.

“Admiral Özbal,” Uğurlu said, stepping forward, placing his arms behind his back after the salute. “Thank you for your visit. It is a privilege to be speaking with you again.”

Vice Admiral Mustafa Zeki Uğurly adjusted his cap against the wind as he fell into step beside Admiral Adnan Özbal. The two men, decorated veterans of a war their country had lost, walked in measured silence along the balcony that overlooked the base. Below them, small patrol vessels rocked in rhythm against their moorings, and to the west, the silhouettes of frigates and destroyers loomed in the mist.

“The air is sharp today," Uğurly murmured.

“So is the memory of failure," Özbal replied without looking.

It was here, on these very waters, that centuries ago the Ottoman fleet had held the line, where the straits had been defended not just by firepower, but by vision. And yet, it was also here, only a few years ago, that the Russians had broken through, landing behind Turkish lines and dealing a fatal blow to Istanbul's defense.

“You’ve seen the reports of Moscow trying to regain control over the Crimean Peninsula,” Uğurly said, almost half asking. “That should confirm our suspicions that the Russians are trying to rebuild their fleet in the Black Sea. Time is no longer a luxury we can afford.”

Özbal didn’t smile. “You are right Mustafa.” Özbal said with a sigh. “This fleet has spent more time tied to political leash than the sea. That ends now. Our Black Sea Fleet isn’t broken, but it’s blind, and our enemies are watching.”

Uğurlu exhaled through his nose. “Blind, yes. But not deaf. The sailors still carry pride. Doctrine, though... Doctrine has become the talk of the political class and the imagination of college staff officers not field officers.”

“The reports are troubling; however our Black Sea Fleet remains operational while both the Russians and the Ukrainians must rebuild theirs. For too long the general staff have wept at our performance and spent more time licking our wounds than thinking about what comes next,” Özbal muttered. “Your point stands. Maneuver, flexibility, integration. But that doesn’t mean we abandon sea denial. We don’t have the resources to contest every corridor.”

Uğurlu turned to face the sea. “You mistake my view Admiral. Sea control is not a luxury. It’s a necessity in our region. If we cede the Aegean, we invite another landing. If we let the Russians own the Black Sea, they will bring war to our gates again. We need a permanent presence. Dissuasion. Not just deterrence.”

“But presence without survivability is hubris.” Özbal folded his arms. "What good is a fleet visible from orbit if it dies in the first salvo? The war proved this. Our control must come through layered denial: coastal batteries, drones, mines. Ships that can disappear, strike, and vanish.”

Uğurlu studied him for a moment, then nodded. “It looks like we disagree on that then Adnan.”

Özbal raised an eyebrow. “A navy in the modern world, especially in the Black Sea, has lost the luxury of battleships, fancy naval parades, and large surface vessels. I believe in sailors, not symbols. Human mastery, not automated illusions. Every Turkish officer should be as deadly as the missile he commands.”

Uğurlu let out a short, bitter chuckle. “On that, we agree. No drone can improvise under fire. No algorithm can understand the desperation of losing your coast. But technology isn’t the enemy. Our men need it to sharpen their instincts. Not replace them.”

They were silent for a moment. The wind whistled against the steel rigging above. Below, a junior officer barked a command across the dockside.

“Tell me, Mustafa,” Özbal said at last. “Do you believe this institution can change? We train our officers for peace, then ask them to improvise war. We are buried in forms, doctrine binders, parade drills. Where is command autonomy?”

“Buried under fear,” Uğurlu answered without hesitation. “Fear of punishment, fear of acting out line. But that’s over. I’ve restructured the Black Sea command. I want my captains to act without waiting for Ankara to send a memo. If we fail again, it will not be because we hesitated.”

Özbal placed a hand on the railing. “Good. Because we don’t have another war to lose.”

“We hold the Black Sea,” Uğurlu said softly. “We have the FREMMs, the corvettes, the submarines at Bartın. Enough to deny the sea, enough to begin controlling it. But we need to operate with one voice. No more intellectual war rooms, no more naval salons arguing philosophy while our ships sink.”

Özbal looked over to him. “I have spoken with Vice Admiral Fırat and just like you she believes the focus of the Aegean Fleet must be sea control.” Özbal said looking out at the mooring ships. “Yet I can not get the burning image of our ships sinking out of my mind. To be completely honest…I see it as a waste of resources.”

A beat passed. Then Uğurlu chimed in. “I understand the appeal of denial, it focuses on using smaller and leaner forces. In a way it allows you to project disproportionate control. However the Black Sea is open and offers little protection the way the Aegean does. We need the platforms to stand toe to toe with the Russians if we want to stop them.”

Özbal let out another sigh. “That is true Mustafa.” Özbal said in an almost defeated tone. “I also know the Naval General Staff and Command Headquarters thinks I am trying to turn our navy into a pirate fleet. However, I am still convinced of the need for a change in investment from our heavier platforms.”

Uğurly stopped, turning to face the Admiral. “That’s your doctrine now, isn’t it? Drones, integrated systems, sea denial. But where is the pride in a fleet that hides in the rocks? That strikes from shore and never shows its flag?”

“Where was the pride when our ships burned in the Bosphorus?” Özbal shot back, his voice low, heavy. “When our sailors died confused, without orders, without air cover? You and I both remember that night. You remember the silence on the comms. The panic. The helplessness. The sea doesn’t care for pride, Mustafa. It respects competence.”

The Vice Admiral looked out across the water, the weight of the past was thick in his chest. He did remember. He remembered the fear. The burning lights of warships struck mid-channel. The screams through the open channels. Istanbul had fallen not because of lack of courage, but because of arrogance.
.
“You believe this can be reversed with off-the-shelf technology and conscripts flying suicide drones?" he asked, more weary than combative.

“No,” Özbal answered, walking again. ”I believe in networks. I believe in intelligence, in geospatial integration, in targeting their formations before they can leave port. This isn’t about building a navy that floats. It’s about building a navy that thinks. A navy that senses before it shoots. That scrambles their eyes and ears before they even reach the straits.”

Uğurlu cleared his throat. “Admiral, I understand the need for more investment in smart systems however that doesn’t change the basic facts of naval warfare. Just look at the U.S. Navy and the reintroduction of modernized battleships.” Uğurlu said as took a look out at the ships swaying slightly while moored.

“I understand the fear in heavy ships that lack the mobility or low-signature but our neighbors are fighting with vessels that carry the necessary firepower to win decisively. We lack those capabilities. Our FREMM frigates at Gölcük and Erdek, the Ada corvettes, Barbaros-class ships, are not sufficient in number to fight a multi-front naval operation. Not to mention our limited number of Type 209 submarines means we can’t secure or contain a threat arising from the Russians.”

Özbal nodded. “Steel alone is insufficient. If we insist on sea control, indeed, as you are arguing, to match our near-peer adversaries in tonnage then I fear we risk presenting a target-rich environment for the enemy’s long-range strike and coordinated firepower.”

Uğurlu nodded. “Sea control ensures freedom of navigation and our regional presence without these platforms our ability to deter Russian advances in the Black Sea is compromised.”

Özbal pointed out to the fleet outside their view. “Yet, we lack air cover, comprehensive electronic countermeasures, and resilient C2. Sea denial, by contrast, leverages unmanned surface vessels, shore-based batteries, and information space disruption. With the Black Sea Fleet tasked to contain Russia’s permanent base in Sevastopol, the goal is not to chase their fleet but to deny them freedom of movement.”

Özbal pointed out into the distance. “Imagine mobile missile launchers deployed along the Bosphorus, temporary sensor nodes deployable by Aydin-class MCM vessels, and Type 209 subs loitering in chokepoints. That is deterrence.”

Uğurlu frowned. “That vision of restraint gives Russia the opportunity to determine the battlefield not us. Rather than forcing them into decisive action and being able to draw their fleet out they will sit at port and wait until the right conditions present themselves. A navy that never shows its flag forfeits prestige. We must be able to find some balance here surely.”

Özbal nodded. “Limited objectives and joint integration yield political effect. So, if we were to modify my plan then this doctrine should blend presence and denial: Ada-class corvettes on forward patrol, supported by unmanned systems and integrated networks using datalinks provided by air and subsurface systems.”

Özbal stepped down the stairs, inviting Uğurlu to join them on the balcony below. “This brings us to the human dimension. You argue that human mastery, our finest sailors and officers exercising initiative, can overcome any enemy. I agree. Technology without trained, adaptable personnel is brittle.”

Uğurlu’s stern expression softened slightly as he followed the Chief. “We have already begun restructuring training curricula with a focus on command autonomy, mission command principles introduced aboard every frigate, and placing decision-making in the hands of competent officers. Officers will be empowered to act independently when communications are severed.”

Özbal nodded. “I am happy to hear that. When does the next cohort finish their training?”

“The current graduating class will complete training at the Naval War College in a few days where if selected they will join the current cohort here.” Uğurlu’s said as the students returned to their classrooms after an afternoon pt session. “The current officer class training here will finish in April of next year.”

Özbal nodded. “I want a similar program being implemented at Foça and hopefully I can convince the War College board to rethink their curriculum to allow you guys to hone in those skills rather than have to teach it to them here.”


Uğurlu nodded as he looked at the Chief. “Sir there have been concerns, expressed by a number of senior officers here, about civil-military relations. I believe that if we are to see our reforms implemented then the navy must inform national policy, not merely execute. Our operational assessments, war-gaming results, and intelligence analyses provide essential insight for Ankara to make decisions.”

Özbal inclined his head. “The civilian leadership must retain ultimate authority, yet informed decision-making demands that the navy’s institutional voice be heard. While we can advise it is ultimately them who decide. Subordination does not require silence, but it requires acceptance.”

A murmur rippled underneath them as several officers walked by. Uğurlu and Özbal exchanged a brief glance before he looked back at Uğurlu “The road ahead is not easy Uğurlu. However we must ensure that we do not repeat the mistakes of the past. We must find a way to contain our enemies.”

“And if they break through?” Uğurlu asked.

“Then they meet teeth,” Özbal replied. “They meet mobile missile batteries that scatter and regroup. They meet ghost fleets of mobile and agile vessels that use terrain to their advantage. They meet a navy that disappears, then strikes. A Turkish lake, Zeki. That’s what the Black Sea will become.”

Mustafa said nothing for a while, simply watching the waves slap against the concrete. He did not fully agree. He still saw value in steel, in tonnage, if for nothing else then symbolism of maritime presence was a deterrence in of itself. But even he, in his quiet heart, knew that something had to change.

“You know," Özbal said, his tone softening, “the Ottomans always knew this. Halil Pasha once warned that Russian ambition in Crimea could only ever be checked at sea. Not by treaties. Not by speeches. But by denying them the waters they depend on.”

They reached the edge of the overlook, and the sea stretched out before them like a mirror of history. Empires had been born and died on these shores. So had a Republic.

“It was here," Özbal said quietly, “that modern Türkiye was born. The army took the glory of Gallipoli. But next time,” he turned, meeting Uğurly’s eyes, "next time, it will be the navy. I’ll see to that.”

Uğurly did not reply at first. Then, slowly, he extended a hand. ”Then let us make sure there is a next time.”

Uğurlu then looked at the Chief and with a bit of hesitation. “Sir, I’ve spoken with…some of my bookclub members.” He said, trying to gauge how the Chief was looking. “They are prepared to restore the kemalist regime and they’ve already had discussions with some members of the opposition.”

“The Navy should remain apolitical.” Özbal said, taking his hand off the railing. “I believe we execute, not advise. A politicized force will not serve us as we try to restore the forces.”

Uğurlu turned sharply. “That’s not a military. That’s a coast guard in fancy uniforms. The Navy must inform strategy. Who else understands the straits, the islands, the kill zones? We cannot be silent as policy drifts into disaster. That is exactly how we lost the last war. We need to be at the helm guiding this….if we don’t intervene now we will lose the window of opportunity.”

“Careful,” Özbal said, but not unkindly. “I understand the desire to look at the current situation and see the hopelessness…but I can not afford to damage the reputation of our naval forces by intervening in our domestic affairs so carelessly.

“Carelessly?” Uğurlu responded with sharply. “Adnan…the komünistler are leading us into another disaster. We can not…no. We will not be silent.”

“Yes.” Özbal said with a sigh. "The silence of sailors led us to catastrophe. However, you are asking me to use our navy in a way that we have not acted historically.”

“Sir," Uğurlu said. “The book club is dealing with circumstances we have not had to deal with historically. There is a Thai fleet operating within our waters and worse a French carrier group off the coast. The komünists will be able to rally their forces if the Navy does not step in.”

They looked back at the harbor. The TCG Bodrum sat gleaming under morning sunlight, her hull restored but her spirit still recovering.

“Vice Admiral.” Özbal said. “The Aegean Fleet is still rebuilding and you expect us to launch her into open combat with not just one…but two foreign fleets?” Özbal said, looking at Mustafa.

“Sir,” Uğurlu began with. “If the Navy shows it is in support of the coup then the French and Thais will not intervene.
”
“Mustafa.” Özbal said. “I understand your convictions…and I am not afraid to say that I share some of them. However, look around us.” He said as the sailors just came out of their classrooms from their afternoon classes

“All I ask is your blessing.” Uğurlu said.

Özbal watched the cadets, young men and women barely old enough to remember the old flag, let alone understand what had been lost. They were laughing, carrying notebooks, one or two stealing glances at their superiors above. The future of the Navy, bright-eyed and unscarred.

Özbal looked at Uğurlu “You see them? They don’t remember the old coups. They don’t remember how politics consumed us, from within. We are rebuilding, Mustafa. Not just steel and hull, but trust. Credibility. You want me to throw that away?”

Uğurlu responded firm;y “It is not just a book club anymore, sir. These are officers, admirals, generals, some retired, others very much active. They are patriots. They believe, as I do, that Kemalist ideals must not just be remembered, they must be restored. We swore an oath, not to a party, but to the Republic.”


Özbal sighed. “And how many republics have we already buried under that phrase? Our duty is to defend the homeland not to govern it. We intervene and we shatter everything we’ve rebuilt.”

Uğurlu shook his head. “We did not intervene when the communists came to power. We saluted. We obeyed. We retreated from the political arena like gentlemen. And what did that bring us? Humiliation. The fleet you and I once commanded together now shares a sea with foreigners. Our waters are watched by others. Our capital is ruled by ideologues who would sooner imprison admirals than listen to them.”

Özbal responded his voice lower this time “I lost friends in the last purges, Mustafa. But if we go down this path, if we show the flag in favor of one political vision over another, we are no longer the Navy. We are a faction.”

Uğurlu responded coldly “We are already treated as one. The communists have purged our staff colleges, re-written maritime strategy to serve their ideological doctrines, and filled the Defense Ministry with their partisans. The officer corps entrusted to protect Atatürk’s republic are shrinking not just in number, but in spirit. If we wait much longer, there will be nothing left to restore.”

Özbal responded bitterly this time. “You want me to become another Admiral Güreş? Another admiral who writes policy at the barrel of a gun?”

Uğurlu responded “I want you to recognize that the gun is already being aimed…at us. At everything we built. If we do not act now, we will be spectators to the fall of the Republic, wearing our epaulettes like museum relics.”

Özbal turned away, running his hand along the rusted railing. He had once commanded warships through the Dardanelles, but even he could recognize the tides were shifting and he could feel the weight of history dragging at his ankles as rumors spread from Cairo of the rise of another Sultan.

Özbal responded tirely this time. “If I gave you my blessing, what would you do?”

Uğurlu responded without hesitation. “I would rally the navy on your behalf. Establish naval superiority in the Straits. Deny foreign fleets a foothold. Secure İzmir, Foça, and Gölcük. Quietly. Discreetly. Let anyone who tried to stop the coup see that the sea belongs to us again and remind the communists that the military is not theirs”

“And if Ankara and their allies resist?” Özbal asked .

“They already have.” Uğurlu responded flatly. "This would not be the first time the Republic was saved against its own will.”

Silence followed with the sound of gulls wheeling above and the gentle creak of docked hulls interrupted the moment. TCG Bodrum glistened in the late afternoon sun.

“Mustafa…” Özbal started with "If we cross this line, there is no going back.”

Uğurlu nodded before responding softly. “We already crossed it, sir. The only question now is whether we stand still or take the helm.”

 

[Jay]

Özbal Residence, Ankara
May 4th, 2007

The Özbal residence in Çankaya had been built in the 1930s for a diplomat and his Austrian wife. Its stone façade carried the memory of Ankara’s first modernist wave with an angular design. The balcony softened its appeal where Admiral Adnan Özbal’s wife, Hazal, had planted different flowers. On this autumn evening, the ivy was fading into ochre while the lanterns glowed on the terrace.

The first car, a black staff sedan rolled to a halt. Vice Admiral Gökçen Fırat stepped out, her small frame hunched for a moment as she stepped out and was walked to the door by an aide of the Admiral. When she arrived at the door there was a simple knock before Hazal Özbal, dressed in a dark silk blouse, met him at the door.

“Vice Admiral. Adnan is in the study still reading, but I insist you come in first and let me make you a cup of tea.”

Gökçen smiled. “Thank you Hazal Hanım, I’d appreciate that.” She said as she followed Hazal through the house to a small living room where Hazal poured her some black tea, which Gökçen drank from.

Sometime later, another car approached, this one a more formal government vehicle from General Staff Headquarters. Rear Admiral Güldoğan emerged with a briefcase handed to him by his aide. He paused to glance at the house, its modest elegance seemed to irk him. He didn’t like meeting his boss outside of the office and at his home, but he appreciated the gesture of confidence. Hazal greeted him warmly, though, and even he softened.

“You’ve brought your papers, Admiral İsmail,” she teased, noting the heavy case.
“Haha, Hazal Hanım. Thank you.” He said in jest as he followed her inside. “Your home is most lovely.”

“Thank you Admiral,” Hazal said as she led him to Adnan’s study, where he sat with glasses perched on his nose. İsmail smiled as he took his seat.

Rear Admiral Kaan Doğan’s car was a battered blue Peugeot, a relic from the 1980s that he refused to surrender despite the ribbing of colleagues. He drove himself, parked carelessly under a mulberry tree. His jacket was slightly rumpled as he knocked on the door before Hazal rushed back to open it. She smiled when she saw the familiar man. “Kaan, welcome!” She said, kissed him on both cheeks before leading him in.

“Thank you, Hazal.” He said before handing her a small gift of pearls.

“Adnan says you have very sharp eyes, and I didn’t realize it extended to jewelry as well,” she exclaimed as she looked at the pearls.

Kaan smiled, half embarrassed, half amused. “Sharp eyes are no use if nobody listens to them. My wife would say I have a lot more to go.”

Hazal laughed as she led him to the living room, where Vice Admiral Gökçen sat. Kaan adjusted his cap under his arm, and Hazal sat with the two as they chatted and exchanged small talk about their families. Hazal had learned to avoid talking about work with other officers and even more so now that Adnan had gotten a promotion and oversaw more than just naval offices.

Then there was a soft creak as Adnan and İsmail stepped out. Hazal stood up, adjusting her pleated skirt. She led them all to the small parlor, smiling as she passed Adnan, who had to fight back a smile.

Inside, the admirals were settled in the parlor where Hazal had arranged bowls of olives, roasted almonds, and thin slices of sucuk. The room smelled faintly of polished wood and lemon cologne. Kaan had already poured himself a raki and was recounting a story about minesweepers in the Black Sea. İsmail listened stiffly, interjecting about how the operation didn’t really achieve the appreciation it deserved. Gökçen read the report that Adnan had just handed her from the Prime Minister’s office, about the American request to use Mediterranean naval bases.

Adnan looked at his colleagues while he took a sip of warm tea. He wanted to get to it but they were in his home, and the evening had to begin as Hazal insisted, with warmth, food, and tea. The admirals laughed and ate the beautiful spread put together by Hazal. The admirals ate from Adana and Iskender kebabs with a small side of bulgur. Hazal also made fresh pide and lahmacun, while Kaan took sips from his kuzu güveç stew. Hazal sensed that Adnan wanted to get to work, and so she sensed an opening and began clearing the plates. She returned briefly to place a tray of walnut Baklava and some fresh tea before disappearing to her own private room to do late-night reading.

Adnan smiled as Kaan lit a cigar and took a puff from it. Gökçen and İsmail opted for tea as Adnan handed them each a draft of the Maritime Institute Report.

“I won’t sugarcoat it when I say that the report is definitely an eye-opener,” Adnan said as he took a sip of tea. İsmail nodded but interjected. “It doesn’t tell us something we didn’t know. The balance of power has shifted greatly since 1995, and it will only continue to do so.”
Gökçen gave a small nod as she listened. “I think it is reassuring that when it comes to parity that the Turkish Navy is currently the premier naval power in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.” She said as she looked at one of the tables. “However, both Portugal and Britain have serious capabilities with easy access to the Mediterranean, which can have serious consequences on our force disposition in future naval conflicts.”

`
Kaan let out a puff as Adnan started speaking. “I agree with your assessment. But I think that for us the lesson is that we cannot meet steel with steel. Our strength must be in denial, in forcing them to pay dearly for every movement. Long-range stand-off weapons on leaner platforms, and mines in the choke points. The Mediterranean is a confined theater. Let them choke in it.”

İsmail shook his head, “With respect, Gökçen, I think you are implying that we are destined to hide behind clever tricks. I will not have the Turkish Navy reduced to a fleet of traps and ambushes. If Britain sails from Cyprus, or if the Thais move beyond Suez, we cannot counter with buoys and mines. We need frigates, heavier, stronger hulls that can go toe to toe. Otherwise, we are begging to be bypassed.”

Gökçen’s eyes flashed. “And how many frigates can you build to match theirs? For every ship we lay down, London and Bangkok will lay down more. We simply don’t have the financial capabilities to do so.

Admiral Özbal raised a hand, “Enough. We will not waste this discussion on personal pride. Our doctrine must evolve. The report is very blunt that these global fleets dominate because they maneuver where they wish. Our duty is to make maneuvering costly. That does not mean surrender. It means flexibility, smaller assets that can redeploy, deny coverage, and harass their supply lines. This is how we sap their advantage.”

Kaan nodded and spoke up. “I agree. We must evolve in our naval doctrine and combine intelligence with a standoff capability that gives us an edge. The American and British navies have to worry about a rising Thailand in Asia, while the Swedes are focused on maintaining a global colonial empire that is stretched from Scandinavia to the Antarctic. That gives us an advantage that we can concentrate our forces quicker than a potential adversary.”

“Partnerships with Spain, Portugal, and Egypt will also help us to turn the Mediterranean into a less friendly place to potential adversaries,” Gökçen added.

There was a pause. Even İsmail tapped his pen and looked down.

Gökçen continued on. “Kaan is correct. The Dardanelles, Gibraltar, and Suez are our great equalizers. If we can coordinate with allies, close the locks when the moment comes, no fleet will move freely, not even those called ‘global.’ We can kill their greatest asset, which is maneuverability.”

The others nodded. The debate quieted for a moment, the only sound the rustle of paper as the lamps in the parlor burned low, throwing the admirals’ faces into amber relief. Smoke from Kaan’s cigar curled toward the ceiling.

“I agree Gökçen.” Kaan said. “We need to turn our strategic asset, geography, into a weapon. If we can close the door or force the enemy to maneuver in tight spaces, our smaller navy all of a sudden gets much stronger.”

Adnan set his teacup down, the porcelain clicking softly against the saucer. He leaned back, hands folded in his lap. He appreciated having an ally like Gökçen in the Aegean fleet command. It did make it easier than Mustafa, who, despite his exceptional leadership skills, was very much a hawk. That hawkish behavior made Mustafa difficult to convince of the need of a ‘new’ navy.

“The Prime Minister and I will be meeting later this week,” Adnan said. “The Americans will not wait forever, and nor will the British. We need to develop a doctrine that is not just suitable for our military but also our political and economic capabilities. Until we can have a stable Balkans, the sea is our new jugular, and keeping the same straits we seek to close to our enemies to ourselves is of the utmost importance. We must not present her with dreams.”

Kaan exhaled smoke slowly, his eyes half-lidded in thought. “Dreams, no. But she must understand the limits. Especially if she is asking us to devise a strategy to defend the country while also inviting the same nations we are planning our operations against to use our facilities. To grant them bases is to give them eyes on everything we move.”

İsmail bristled slightly, tapping his pen against the table as he spoke. “Isolation is survivable. Dependence is not. If we permit them into Mersin or Aksaz, we become a forward operating base for their global dominance.”

Gökçen shook her head. “Isolation is not survivable. If it was, we would have won the war.” She said, looking around the table. “We must be honest with ourselves. That report should show us one thing. In this world, we can either build alliances or risk being a lone wolf in a dangerous world. If we stand alone and the British set sail through the Straits, or if Thailand transits through Suez, do you think we can win? Isolation sounds dignified until it is tested by steel. We’ve already been tested and we lost that.”

For a moment, silence pressed against the walls. Adnan glanced at the clock on the mantel, its hands slipping past midnight. Hazal would still be awake in her private room, he knew, reading as always, but she would not disturb them.

At last, Adnan spoke again. “Then the choice is this. Do we balance between alliances and autonomy, or do we stake everything on one? The report is clear that the current maritime power is based on maneuverability, but maneuverability is not only about ships. It is politics, economics, the very perception of our will. If we can turn the Mediterranean into an Ottoman lake, then no foreign admiral will sleep easily.”

Kaan raised his glass of rakı in a small salute, his voice carrying a touch of irony. “To doubt then, the most reliable of all our allies.”

A ripple of laughter moved through the room. Even İsmail allowed himself a smile. Yet beneath it, the weight of the decision lingered.

The laughter faded. Gökçen closed the report, resting her palm on its cover. “Whatever else, the Institute has given us something solid. The numbers are not catastrophic. The sea favors the bold and the brave. We would learn something from that.”

Kaan drew the last drag from his cigar before snuffing it out in the tray. “Yes, but let us not fool ourselves. We are in a good place, better than our neighbors and with more room than some of our so-called near-peer adversaries. Yet our economy is not boundless. The Army has been forced to demobilize entire divisions, the Air Force has cut whole squadrons.”

İsmail nodded. “True enough. Even we are not immune. The excess helicopters are going; support wings are being thinned. But compared to the land and air forces, we’ve been spared the proverbial axe. We should be grateful for that.”

Adnan nodded. “Grateful, yes, but not complacent. The day will come when the ledger reaches our fleet as well. When it does, we must show that every lira spent buys us something valuable, not vanity. That is the lesson of this report.”

At last, Gökçen rose, smoothing her uniform jacket. “Thank you, Adnan, for hosting us. It is a bit refreshing to leave the office, though I will have to return to Izmir.”

İsmail closed his briefcase with a quiet snap. “Agreed. It is a pleasure to have you in Ankara Gökçen.”

Kaan clapped Adnan lightly on the shoulder as he stood. “And we trust our chief to steer us through the tough storms ahead.” He said almost in a jesting manner.

One by one, they filed toward the hall, their voices hushed, their expressions thoughtful. Hazal reappeared briefly to see them off, her smile polite as she handed them their coats, and farewells were exchanged.

They moved toward the patio as the others filed out. Kaan and İsmail had already exchanged their last words as they disagreed on the Suez issue. The gravel had crunched under their heels, and the government sedan had sighed into the street. On the terrace, the air was cooler, and the lantern light threw the ivy into a pattern of shadow that made the garden feel like a separate, secret world. Adnan lingered by the balustrade, the report folded beneath one arm. Gökçen stood beside him.

He gave her a look that was part invitation, part command. “Before you go,” he said, “there is something I wanted to ask about the army’s message. The Prime Minister’s staff mentioned that the army has been preparing contingency plans. I assumed it was routine. Has anything else been said?”

Gökçen hesitated only a fraction. “They asked me to assist in planning,” she said. Her voice was low. “The Fourth Army has been given a task to prepare contingencies for Kıbrıs. They called it Operation Atilla.”

Atilla. The name landed in Adnan’s mind. He had heard the name tossed about in passing among staff talk, a throwaway phrase in a hallway, and assumed it referred to the ‘74 and ‘79 Atilla operation. The surprise made his gaze sharpen. “Operation Atilla,” he repeated, tasting the syllables. “I had heard the phrase in a rumor. I did not know they had set it in motion.”

Gökçen’s fingers tightened, briefly, on the railing. “They want the Navy’s cooperation,” she said. “The proposed operation will require moving 10,000 men, hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and equipment via sea. Sealift and sea control, interdiction of maritime approaches, support for amphibious contingencies. The Fourth believes any scenario around Kıbrıs will demand coordinated maritime action. They have asked for our assistance in planning those contingencies.”

Adnan looked out across the garden and then back to her. He let out a long breath. Gökçen sensed that the army had not told Adnan about it. Feeling rather discomforted over what she should divulge.

Adnan nodded. “I see.” He said. “Well, I think it is good to prepare for any contingencies, and I expect you’ll be tasked with dealing with the Aegean issue very soon.” He said with a mute smile.

Gökçen curtly nodded her head. “I’d appreciate you giving some ships from the Black Sea fleet then.” She said in a jest as her vehicle crept up the gravel road.

“The Prime Minister’s office wanted our views on the U.S. using the Aegean naval facilities, and I’d like to hear your thoughts,” Adnan asked.

“I would not prefer it,” she said honestly. “But better an ally than an adversary. The American Navy has been drawn, increasingly, into European affairs. They need forward logistics more than they can gather from their own shores. A base gives them reach, and it gives us leverage. If we become indispensable to them, then we are not merely a satellite on their roster of ports.”

“You would rather not,” he repeated, “but you would accept alliance for leverage.”

Gökçen met his gaze with the steadiness of a commander who understands the arithmetic of survival. “Not in that phrasing. Having America as an ally is better than having America as an enemy. If they must intervene, let it be with our cooperation. If they need a base, then let them need us. Importance carries meaning in this dangerous world.”

Adnan nodded once as he thanked her. When she left, her silhouette swallowed by the night, Adnan remained a moment longer. Then he went back inside, the parlor lamp lifting him into its small, watchful circle, and closed the door behind him on the hush of the terrace.