- Jul 12, 2018
- 10,350
Hawkens looked visibly uncomfortable as the Prime Minister mentioned bringing up the loaned amount to $40,000,000. He wasn't even sure if Sweden and Poland would keep to their $10-billion commitments and, if they did, he was certain that they would actually want to be paid their interest. Depending on how they wanted their payments done, it might not be feasible because too large of payments would skyrocket the Turkish deficit and stall paying of the debt. The situation was indeed complicated and Turkey did need more money, but Hawkins felt that "free money" was not the solution. He could tell that Ayşe was uncomfortable talking about this since she had very, very little to bargain with.
"Prime Minister, first off, I want to underscore that I am not here to humiliate you. I know that the idea of a bailout - regardless of how it is done - is not something to be proud of, but I think that history will remember you fondly if you do what needs to be done to get Turkey out of debt. There are a lot of politicians out there in this country who we both know would not even be willing to have this conversation with me so frankly... If you want my opinion, I don't think that the increasing the bailout to $40-billion is realistic. In fact, I think that getting the bailout to be $30-billion is already a Hail Mary - sorry, that's an American euphemism that means 'long shot.'
"Anyway, I understand that it is critical to get Turkish debt below 200%, preferably below 150% as soon as possible. I don't think that a $40-billion bailout is realistic, and I don't think that it would be the best way out of this mess anyway. I can only imagine that you and your government are terrified of being beholden to my government or, for that matter, any other government. It's pretty easy to see that democracy in Turkey would be undermined if your government felt that it had to answer to its debt-holders as much as it had to answer to the Turkish people... There are some alternative methods of getting Turkey to procure money that my team and I have thought about. I will be conservative, and we can go from there...
"First, let's assume a less than best-case scenario with the bailout. Let's assume that one of our partners drops out, and it ends up being a $20-billion bailout, but that is still money that your government gets. Next, the U.S. Air Force would be interested in stationing aircraft and forces at Incirlik Air Base. If that is something that your government would be willing to entertain, the Federal Government would be willing to pay a price to use the base for a certain period of time. Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that your government allowed the United States to have a permanent Air Force installation at Incirlik Air Base, and that your government gave the United States Navy and Coast Guard the right to refuel and replenish at Aksaz Naval Base... That agreement, provided that it was terms and a timetable that we could agree to, could be worth another $5-billion of pure profit. That is $25-billion to Turkey, $5-billion of which is not debt.
"Prime Minister, next, I would highly recommend that you look to trade, because that is where our government is looking. I have been given full authority from the White House to negotiate a trade agreement between the United States and Turkey. We should be able to easily establish a free trade agreement, but on top of that we should establish several trade routes that should be a benefit to both of our countries. The United States is currently shopping options of a trade company to use for these trade deals, but I think you would be surprised of how capable they will be in increasing GDP," he said.
"This gets you more than half way to the $40-billion that you need... Best-case scenario, this gets you three-fourths of what you need. What do you think? Is there anything here that you do not like?" he asked.
Jay
"Prime Minister, first off, I want to underscore that I am not here to humiliate you. I know that the idea of a bailout - regardless of how it is done - is not something to be proud of, but I think that history will remember you fondly if you do what needs to be done to get Turkey out of debt. There are a lot of politicians out there in this country who we both know would not even be willing to have this conversation with me so frankly... If you want my opinion, I don't think that the increasing the bailout to $40-billion is realistic. In fact, I think that getting the bailout to be $30-billion is already a Hail Mary - sorry, that's an American euphemism that means 'long shot.'
"Anyway, I understand that it is critical to get Turkish debt below 200%, preferably below 150% as soon as possible. I don't think that a $40-billion bailout is realistic, and I don't think that it would be the best way out of this mess anyway. I can only imagine that you and your government are terrified of being beholden to my government or, for that matter, any other government. It's pretty easy to see that democracy in Turkey would be undermined if your government felt that it had to answer to its debt-holders as much as it had to answer to the Turkish people... There are some alternative methods of getting Turkey to procure money that my team and I have thought about. I will be conservative, and we can go from there...
"First, let's assume a less than best-case scenario with the bailout. Let's assume that one of our partners drops out, and it ends up being a $20-billion bailout, but that is still money that your government gets. Next, the U.S. Air Force would be interested in stationing aircraft and forces at Incirlik Air Base. If that is something that your government would be willing to entertain, the Federal Government would be willing to pay a price to use the base for a certain period of time. Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that your government allowed the United States to have a permanent Air Force installation at Incirlik Air Base, and that your government gave the United States Navy and Coast Guard the right to refuel and replenish at Aksaz Naval Base... That agreement, provided that it was terms and a timetable that we could agree to, could be worth another $5-billion of pure profit. That is $25-billion to Turkey, $5-billion of which is not debt.
"Prime Minister, next, I would highly recommend that you look to trade, because that is where our government is looking. I have been given full authority from the White House to negotiate a trade agreement between the United States and Turkey. We should be able to easily establish a free trade agreement, but on top of that we should establish several trade routes that should be a benefit to both of our countries. The United States is currently shopping options of a trade company to use for these trade deals, but I think you would be surprised of how capable they will be in increasing GDP," he said.
"This gets you more than half way to the $40-billion that you need... Best-case scenario, this gets you three-fourths of what you need. What do you think? Is there anything here that you do not like?" he asked.
Jay
