United States | Message to Turkey

[Odinson]

Hawkens looked visibly uncomfortable as the Prime Minister mentioned bringing up the loaned amount to $40,000,000. He wasn't even sure if Sweden and Poland would keep to their $10-billion commitments and, if they did, he was certain that they would actually want to be paid their interest. Depending on how they wanted their payments done, it might not be feasible because too large of payments would skyrocket the Turkish deficit and stall paying of the debt. The situation was indeed complicated and Turkey did need more money, but Hawkins felt that "free money" was not the solution. He could tell that Ayşe was uncomfortable talking about this since she had very, very little to bargain with.

"Prime Minister, first off, I want to underscore that I am not here to humiliate you. I know that the idea of a bailout - regardless of how it is done - is not something to be proud of, but I think that history will remember you fondly if you do what needs to be done to get Turkey out of debt. There are a lot of politicians out there in this country who we both know would not even be willing to have this conversation with me so frankly... If you want my opinion, I don't think that the increasing the bailout to $40-billion is realistic. In fact, I think that getting the bailout to be $30-billion is already a Hail Mary - sorry, that's an American euphemism that means 'long shot.'

"Anyway, I understand that it is critical to get Turkish debt below 200%, preferably below 150% as soon as possible. I don't think that a $40-billion bailout is realistic, and I don't think that it would be the best way out of this mess anyway. I can only imagine that you and your government are terrified of being beholden to my government or, for that matter, any other government. It's pretty easy to see that democracy in Turkey would be undermined if your government felt that it had to answer to its debt-holders as much as it had to answer to the Turkish people... There are some alternative methods of getting Turkey to procure money that my team and I have thought about. I will be conservative, and we can go from there...

"First, let's assume a less than best-case scenario with the bailout. Let's assume that one of our partners drops out, and it ends up being a $20-billion bailout, but that is still money that your government gets. Next, the U.S. Air Force would be interested in stationing aircraft and forces at Incirlik Air Base. If that is something that your government would be willing to entertain, the Federal Government would be willing to pay a price to use the base for a certain period of time. Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that your government allowed the United States to have a permanent Air Force installation at Incirlik Air Base, and that your government gave the United States Navy and Coast Guard the right to refuel and replenish at Aksaz Naval Base... That agreement, provided that it was terms and a timetable that we could agree to, could be worth another $5-billion of pure profit. That is $25-billion to Turkey, $5-billion of which is not debt.

"Prime Minister, next, I would highly recommend that you look to trade, because that is where our government is looking. I have been given full authority from the White House to negotiate a trade agreement between the United States and Turkey. We should be able to easily establish a free trade agreement, but on top of that we should establish several trade routes that should be a benefit to both of our countries. The United States is currently shopping options of a trade company to use for these trade deals, but I think you would be surprised of how capable they will be in increasing GDP," he said.

"This gets you more than half way to the $40-billion that you need... Best-case scenario, this gets you three-fourths of what you need. What do you think? Is there anything here that you do not like?" he asked.

Jay

 

[Jay]

Ayşe nodded, listening to Aiden speak. "As someone who has spent an unhealthy amount of time at Harvard Crimson games, I can appreciate the Hail Mary reference." She gave him a weak smile.

"I will not lie when I say that the bailout is a very politically toxic issue, and while most of our political and economic elites know it is necessary, they are unable to find the courage to take the right steps." Ayşe crossed her legs, leaning back a bit as she picked her nails slowly.

"While I appreciate your kind intent, there is no scenario where I accept a conditional bailout and walk away in the short term unscathed. They are already calling me a traitor for cutting our overbloated defense budget and I doubt accepting money from countries that a few years ago were bombing us will do me any favors." Ayşe let out a soft sigh.

"But, I didn't come into office with some grand ambition of ruling or the benefits of high office. I came into office to serve the Turkish people and stop this humiliating suffering I see every day on the streets." Ayşe said, giving a soft nod as Aiden shifted the conversation to alternatives to the full bailout.

"I recognize that there is a level of realism needed," Ayşe began with. "I appreciate that you have presented alternatives that can help us." Ayşe nodded as Aiden continued to speak. "I will explore the potential of rehosting American forces at Incirlik and a refuel and refit agreement for Aksaz. While I am personally in favor, I am worried I have limited political capital in parliament." Ayşe conceded.

"However, back to the economic part of this, I think that the 25 billion is helpful, and I think once other countries see the seriousness of the United States, it'll make it easier for us to request additional assistance."

Ayşe looked at Aiden's plate, seeing that it was slowly depleting, and she would begin pouring him another round, not wanting her guest to leave the residence hungry. While she was pouring him another serving, she spoke about trade.

"We are in the process of negotiating trade agreements with Spain, Poland, and Eran. I do believe we will have those agreements completed by April, and I can say that expanding our trade ties is a crucial piece of our economic recovery plan. I hope I can share in confidence that I plan to introduce a Mediterranean economic union that, beyond the economic benefits, will help to restore stability in the region after a decade of crisis and instability." Ayşe said before placing the pouring spoons down and sitting back.

"I do hope that we will be able to conclude our trade talks as soon as possible, but I believe that we can achieve meaningful results for both our countries."

Odinson

 

[Odinson]

"Well, Prime Minister, if you come up with new ideas I am open to those as well. I understand that you are in a difficult situation, and while I know that everyone in your government may not believe me when I say this, but a politically-independent Turkey that is democratic - and is not beholden to another nation - is in the national interest of the United States. I want to help you however I can," he said, sincerely.

"It is good to hear that you are working on trade; I agree that trade will be critical to Turkey's recovery," he said, as he listened to the mention of a Mediterranean economic union.

"That's a very interesting proposal, I hope that it works out for you. Maybe the new French administration will be interested in participating as well," he said.

Jay

 

[Jay]

"That is reassuring Ambassador," Ayşe said, giving him a weak chuckle. "I am hopeful that beyond this meeting, we are able to build a strong partnership that will bring stability and peace to this region."

Ayşe tucked her hair behind her ear as she continued to speak. "As part of our effort to restart the economy, I have made plans to demobilize over a hundred thousand soldiers and decommission thousands of vehicles. It is a part of both my plan to shift the Turkish armed forces into a modern combat force, but also to help us alleviate our economic crisis."

Ayşe paused for a moment as she folded her hands. “In our arsenal, we currently maintain five hundred MH-60R LAMPS Mark III Block II helicopters and just over three hundred F-16C/D Block 52 Fighting Falcons. As these are American-built systems, and since my government intends to honor the commitments previously made, I would like to ask whether Washington would permit us to place a portion of these aircraft on the market. Specifically, we are considering the sale of approximately three hundred and eighty MH-60s and around forty F-16s, should such an arrangement be acceptable.

At their base valuation of 42.9 million dollars each, the three hundred and eighty helicopters would yield roughly 16.3 billion dollars for my government. The sale of forty F-16s, at a base price of 40 million per aircraft, would add an additional 1.6 billion dollars. Together, these transfers would generate a total of nearly 17.9 billion in revenue. I do believe we won't be able to sell all of the MH-60s, just from a demand perspective, but it would at least allow us to get value out of the systems rather than simply decommission them."

Odinson

 

[Odinson]

"When I get back to the Embassy, I will reach out to the State Department and the Department of Defense, but I don't think the sale of those items should be an issue. However," he said, doing some quick napkin math.

"The State Department did give us a directive that we should be on the lookout for countries who are looking to sell American equipment. I know that the President is in favor of expanding the Air Force, and those F-16s could be useful for the Air National Guard. Considering that they are used, I can tentatively make an offer of 88-percent of the production value of each aircraft. That would bring the final total to... $1,410,875,880 for all 40 F-16s. Is that a price that your government would find reasonable? We would normally only go up to 85-percent, but since my understanding is that these aircraft were only lightly used, I thought that it was more than fair to bump it up to 88-percent," he asked the Prime Minister.

Jay

 

[Jay]

Ayşe listened to Hawkin's proposal and nodded. "I do think the proposal is definitely doable," Ayşe said, trying not to make a binding commitment without consulting the rest of her government, despite finding the arrangement acceptable from her side. "We plan to also phase out anywhere between 40-80 more F-16 Block 52+ if that is of interest to your national guard or military down the line." Ayşe had offered before turning back to the wider conversation.

"I appreciate you taking this back to your government to discuss the possibility of allowing us to resell these systems. I am happy to accept any secondary conditions, such as final approval resting with a joint Turkish-US committee, with America retaining a veto on any potential sales." Ayşe said, hoping that would alleviate any concerns the State Department may have over unwanted sales to American adversaries.

Odinson

 

[Odinson]

"Off the record," he said, "there is no way that these aircraft can be sold or handed over, in any way, to Russia, Thailand, or any other communist country. We would not approve that. Outside of that, I think it is something that we could stomach. To be honest, if you plan to phase out 80 F-16s, it is possible that the Federal Government might be interested in acquiring all of them, but I will need to reach back out to Washington to confirm that. Things can change, as I am sure that you know. Thank you for bringing these potential sales to our attention, Prime Minister," he said.

If there was nothing else pressing to discuss, Hawkins would say, "Prime Minister, I will be sure that my office gets back with yours as soon as possible on these matters. Also, I will make sure that the State Department reaches out to the Polish and Swedish governments regarding a potential low-interest loan to Turkey to alleviate debt," he said.

If there was nothing else to discuss, Ambassador Hawkins would respectfully leave and return to the American Embassy to continue his work.

Jay

 

[Jay]

"Thank you, Ambassador," Ayşe said, smiling at Aiden. "I'd like to raise two remaining points if that is okay."

Ayşe then continued. "We'd like to ask that the Embassy begin the process of issuing visas again to Turkish citizens and work to update our status away from do not travel. I understand you'll need to speak with Washington but I'd appreciate if the facts align with our request, that the changes be made."

Odinson

 

[Odinson]

"Prime Minister, that should not be a problem at all. I will call Secretary Adams first thing in the morning. I feel pretty confident that we will be able to get that updated. I cannot guarantee anything like visa-upon-arrival, but we should be able to have basic travel and commerce between our countries again," he said, agreeing that it was a change that needed to be made, and honestly should have been made earlier.

"I will also reach out to the Department of Commerce and see where we are on a potential trade deal with Turkey," he said.

Jay

 

[Jay]

"Thank you, Ambassador Hawkins." Ayşe said as she stood up, recognizing she had kept the Ambassador for too long. "I appreciate you taking the time to join me for breakfast." Ayşe walked with Hawkins back out the door. Lieutenant Colonel Elif Necmi would follow them as they walked down the stairs. The Lieutenant kept her distance as Ayşe continued to speak.

"Ambassador, I know that at times these conversations may seem formalistic; however, I truly appreciate the lengths you have gone to advocate for Türkiye, and I hope that we may see the blossoming of a positive and enduring friendship." She extended her hand and shook it when Aiden accepted it.

"Should there be anything I can do to help, please, do reach out to me." She said as Refik Ertürk handed the DSS agents a case that contained their sidearms. After they took it, Refik handed it to his deputies, who put the case behind the security glass. As the Motorcade wheeled back to the residence, Ayşe waved the Ambassador off. She watched as his motorcade sped away before Refik informed her she needed to get ready to go to the office.

Odinson

 

[Jay]

Dışişleri Bakanlığı Ministry of Foreign Affairs​

AUTHENTIC COMMUNIQUE OF THE OFFICE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS Security Clearance: Secure and Encrypted ŞİFRELEME KORUMASI: KAPLUĞA​

[Recipient]: Embassy of the United States, Ankara < Odinson > [Sender]: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Türkiye < HRErtemMOFA@tr.gov > [Subject]: Confidential // Minutes from meeting with Prime Minister

Dear Ambassador Hawkins, I hope this message finds you well. On behalf of the Prime Minister's Office, I would like to extend our sincere gratitude for your time and the constructive discussions during the recent meeting. The Prime Minister values the strong diplomatic ties between our nations, and the points raised in the meeting reflect our shared commitment to deepening cooperation in various areas of mutual interest. We are optimistic that the initiatives discussed will pave the way for further strengthening our bilateral relations. Attached to this note is the official minute from the meeting, which we believe captures the key outcomes and areas of focus moving forward. Once again, thank you for your continued partnership and dedication to fostering a positive relationship between our countries. We look forward to future engagements and to seeing the outcomes of our shared efforts. Haluk Ertem Secretary of State for American Affairs Minister of Foreign Affairs Türkiye

ATTACHMENT FROM THE OFFICE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS Security Clearance: Secure and Encrypted ŞİFRELEME KORUMASI: KAPLUĞA​

Participants​ Prime Minister Ayşe Çiller Ambassador Aiden Hawkins, Ambassador of the United States to Türkiye Supporting staff (culinary and protocol staff present, not participating in conversation) 1. Opening and Courtesies​ Prime Minister Çiller welcomed Ambassador Hawkins warmly, inviting him to a traditional Turkish breakfast. The Prime Minister and Ambassador exchanged pleasantries. 2. U.S. Proposal of Economic Support​ Ambassador Hawkins briefed the Prime Minister on discussions in New York between the United States, Sweden, and Poland regarding Türkiye’s financial crisis. Each country tentatively pledged $10 billion in loans (total $30 billion), primarily for economic stabilization and debt servicing, with restrictions on military expenditure. The U.S. share would be provided through the Federal Reserve System, guaranteed by Congress, and with interest payments covered by the U.S. Government — effectively interest-free for Türkiye. Ambassador Hawkins cautioned that commitments from Sweden and Poland were not guaranteed, but stated that Washington’s contribution of $10–15 billion was almost certain. Additionally, the U.S. President authorized the negotiation of a U.S.–Türkiye Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to expand bilateral commerce. 3. Prime Minister’s Response on Debt and Bailout​ The Prime Minister stressed the severity of Türkiye’s sovereign debt crisis, describing it as the gravest national security threat facing the country. She noted: Public debt had ballooned under previous administrations, reaching unsustainable levels. The government had already reduced debt by $30 billion through asset sales and limited reserves. Despite a modest budget surplus of $2.25 billion, the deficit continued to erode gains. The Prime Minister welcomed the proposed bailout but requested consideration of an increase to $40 billion, to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio closer to manageable levels (estimated still between 600–1000%). She underlined her government’s commitment to recovery, acknowledging the political toxicity of a bailout but affirming her willingness to negotiate terms responsibly. 4. Alternative U.S. Proposals​ Ambassador Hawkins suggested complementary measures to offset Türkiye’s financial needs: Incirlik Air Base: potential permanent U.S. Air Force stationing, with financial compensation to Türkiye. Aksaz Naval Base: potential U.S. Navy/Coast Guard refueling and replenishment rights. Estimated combined value: $5 billion direct revenue for Türkiye (non-debt income). Expansion of bilateral trade routes alongside the proposed FTA, expected to boost Türkiye’s GDP. The Prime Minister expressed conditional openness, stressing: Parliamentary resistance to foreign basing agreements may pose challenges. However, U.S. leadership might encourage other partners to contribute further support. She also shared plans to pursue trade agreements with Spain, Poland, and Iran, and confidentially revealed her initiative for a Mediterranean Economic Union to stabilize the region. 5. Defense Sector and Equipment Sales​ Prime Minister Çiller outlined plans to demobilize 100,000 soldiers and modernize the armed forces, partly to ease fiscal pressure. She proposed the sale of surplus U.S.-origin equipment, including: 380 MH-60R helicopters (base valuation ~$16.3 billion). 40 F-16C/D aircraft (base valuation ~$1.6 billion). Ambassador Hawkins responded: U.S. would review the proposal with the State Department and DoD. Tentative offer: purchase of the 40 F-16s at 88% of production value (~$1.41 billion total). Stressed prohibition on resale to Russia, Thailand, or other adversaries, but otherwise saw no obstacles. The Prime Minister indicated acceptance in principle, subject to government review, and suggested establishing a joint Turkish-U.S. committee for final approval of resale to third parties. 6. Additional Requests by the Prime Minister​ Restoration of visa issuance for Turkish citizens by the U.S. Embassy and removal of “Do Not Travel” advisories. Ambassador Hawkins committed to raise this with Secretary of State Adams immediately. He also undertook to follow up with: U.S. Department of Commerce (FTA and trade). State Department outreach to Sweden and Poland (loan participation). 7. Closing​ Both parties reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the U.S.–Türkiye partnership. Prime Minister Çiller emphasized her hope for a cooperative path toward stability, peace, and prosperity. Meeting concluded with cordial thanks, and Ambassador Hawkins departed for the U.S. Embassy in Ankara. Summary of Outcomes / Follow-Up​ Bailout: Türkiye receptive to $30B package, requests consideration of $40B. U.S. confirms commitment of $10–15B; will lobby Sweden/Poland. Military Bases: Türkiye open to exploring Incirlik/Aksaz agreements; subject to parliamentary approval and a SOFA. Defense Sales: Türkiye proposes resale of MH-60s and F-16s; U.S. tentatively agrees to acquire 40-80 F-16s; further discussions required. Trade: FTA negotiations to begin. Travel & Visas: U.S. Embassy to review resumption of visa issuance and travel advisory update. Next Steps: U.S. Ambassador to engage State, Defense, Commerce; coordinate with Polish/Swedish governments. Turkish Government to review potential for SOFA for use of Turkish military facilities, sales for defense products, and FTA considerations.